EUR/usd
The markets cannot move in one and the same direction for long, even if there are reasons for that. Thus, Friday became the day of correction, when demand for risky assets was growing and the euro was appreciating since the start of European trading. Moreover, the single currency also managed to extend its modest gains during the Asian session. Earlier today EUR/USD successfully recovered from Friday's lows of 1.2640 to 1.2810. It's quite possible that being under high pressure since the beginning of the month the euro will try to close out this trading day positive as well. This run of events can be well contributed by the fact that concerns around Greece are currently subsiding as the G8 leaders have expressed their will and desire to keep Greece in the euro bloc, emphasizing the need for economic recovery incentives (the Anglo-Saxon approach), but at the same time keeping in force the demand for the balanced austerity (the German approach). Although this formal support doesn't promise to ease Greece's lot, it still can make the markets which for the last two weeks considered the question with Greece's exit settled feel more optimistic. It's not surprising that the leaders of the largest developed countries should pay such a careful attention to this rather small country. Roughly half of the EU countries are in recession judging by the data for 1Q. Despite quite favourable figures posted in the first quarter the recovery in the USA is evidently losing steam and experts suppose that by the end of the year the Fed will probably have to adopt some new non-standard policies to maintain low interest rates in the economy. There won't be much statistics and therefore any obstacles to the correction today. The only thing of interest is the Construction Output release scheduled for today. This indicator remains in the down trend, and even lost at once 7.1% in February. The year-to-year reduction then made 12.9% and the overall loss from the peak levels in 2007 amounted to more than a quarter. As we see, in contrast to the USA, which have demonstrated no decline in the sector and even posted some gains there, the European affairs are far from being stabilized. So, we can hardly rely on a quick reversal here.
GBP/USD
The British pound finished the free fall of the previous week with the consolidation around the 200-day moving average level. The consolidation is now at 1.5820 after testing the low of 1.5730 on Monday morning. The daily charts clearly show that GBP/USD performed quite an unexpected surge from this level in the second half of April, and then with an almost mirror movement bounced back to the same level. From the technical viewpoint, the cable still looks oversold and can be in demand due to the correction of stock exchanges. Besides, the pound can be favourably affected by the release of the Public Sector Borrowing data scheduled for tomorrow. The indicator is forecasted to post a slight budget surplus of 5.4bln, despite the fact that this situation is not typical of April. So it only remains to see if Cameron's government will surpass the experts' expectations.
USD/JPY
The dollar/yen continued its decline on profit taking in the dollar on Friday. If the depreciation of the dollar in other stock exchanges can be explained by subsiding fears around Greece, the yen growth allows speaking about the technical nature of this correction, as investors have decided to stop fleeing to dollars for a while by means of consolidation. USD/JPY remains in the down trend, and the attempt to break it last week ended up with a dramatic decline. Now the pair is trading at 79.20 which is roughly in the middle of the channel. Its lower boundary is now at 78.0 and will be at 77.40.
gold
Gold feels better than most of its counterparts in the correction phase. This precious metal is worth $1597 per ounce, though last Wednesday it dropped down to 1527 at a certain moment. We should say that it's the third attempt to break through the level of 1530 since September. The previous two attempts ended up with the growth of the rate up to 1800. Who wants to run the risk again?
