EUR/usd
The single currency is still in the upward trend despite a certain decline to its lower boundary during slack trading on Monday. Today the most part of the day promises to be even more sluggish due to holidays in Europe, however it doesn't deprive us of the opportunity to see the volatile end of trading today. Among yesterday's statistics we should single out data on the consumer spending of Americans in March, which came in rather bearish despite the better-than-expected personal income growth. In March Americans spent by 0.3% more than in February while earned by 0.4% more. Thus, the conspicuously decreased savings ratio is again on the rebound. It's not very favourable for the dollar as it may retard growth in the USA, where about 80% of GDP is accounted for by final consumption. Other statistical data are also of interest. The Chicago PMI index showed a strong decline from 62.2 down to 56.2 in April. This is the lowest level since November 2009. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity also came in below expectations. From the March level of 10.8 this indicator dived below the zero mark, having fallen down to -3.4. However, all these figures are of rather minor importance in comparison with today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. This important indicator will either confirm the serious decline in business activity or will refute the signals of secondary indicators. Some attribute the strong data on growth in the USA to very warm weather which gave a sufficient impetus in the first months, but only due to the dynamics of the following ones.
GBP/USD
Yesterday's rally of the British pound could well go down in history. The thing is that Monday's trading started with growth of the pound. Actually, that was the 11th day of consecutive growth of the currency vs. the dollar, which had never happened before. Hardly had USD/GBP touched 1.63 when the bears woke up and drove the pair down. Today trading has started with the sales of the British currency, so the sterling has already gone down to 1.6220. It's a rare case against the background of the euro purchases. As has already been mentioned, EUR/GBP is at the levels, from which it has reversed not once earlier. Unlike the Continental Europe celebrating the holidays, Britain keeps working. And today we'll see the release of Manufacturing PMI for the country. The index is expected to show a slight decline, which nevertheless will mark the continuing growth. Well, the GDP was also forecasted to grow.
USD/JPY
The systematic sales of USD/JPY after the BOJ's meeting on Friday have already driven the pair down to 79.70. The markets are so disappointed in the BOJ ability to improve the situation with deflation and economic slowdown that have brought the pair down to its two-month lows. As a result, for now the pair has already recouped half of its rate growth since the beginning of February's rally. However, in the short term we recommend to consider buying of the pair as it looks strongly oversold on the four-hour candlestick charts (it works especially well in this pair) and close to overselling on a daily chart.
AUD/USD
The Australian CB has proved to be by far more decisive in its actions than was expected by 27 out of 29 economists interviewed by Bloomberg. The RBA cut the rate straightaway by 50bp which hadn't been taken into account not only by the economists but also by the markets. As a result, the aussie has lost at once 1% and is now trading at 1.0320. It's quite far away from the lower boundary of the channel (1.0250), which gives the bulls, defending this support level, time to get ready. Yet, hardly anything can prevent the Aussie from going to the support level in the coming days.
