EUR/usd
The failures in the first half of the day didn't distress the euro. fomc's member Bullard made it clear that the Fed was not going to curtail the stimulation programme in the near future. Anyway, the market reaction was relatively reserved as the markets were waiting for today's speech of Bernanke. In the meantime, the euro is consolidating above 1.29, which didn't yield yesterday morning. And again growth of the single currency has been caused by the upward movement of stock exchanges instead of the positive environment in the euro zone. This growth will hardly be long-lasting. The US stock markets has been oversold (in daily charts) since the middle of the previous month, and the major growth driver here is increase in dividend payouts against stagnation of the actual sales volume. And though we do not urge to go short right now, it would be more reasonable to seek the moment to sell rather than speculate for the rise in the long-term perspective. Thus, growth above 1.3030 in eurusd may stumble over another wave of selling. At the same time in the near term we are staking on mildness of Bernanke, who will speak before the Congress today. He is not likely to bring news about reduction of the asset purchasing programme in June or August. If our supposition comes true, it the euro may rise above 1.30. But be careful on Thursday. At the beginning of the EU session there will be a release of PMI statistics for the eurozone and its key countries. Germany has been facing decrease in production activity for two months in a row (according to this index) and it is expected that it will be the same in May. Against such a background the single currency may start falling more intensively.
GBP/USD
It is an important day for the sterling today, but tomorrow will be even of greater importance. The release of Second GDP Estimate is scheduled for tomorrow – it is expected to show growth of 0.3% in 1Q. Be careful as the downward revision is possible for the first estimate often differs dramatically from the final data (by 0.1-0.2 of a percent). The sterling suffered much on the slowdown of the CPI and PPI rates yesterday. Though it will hardly make the BOE extend its QE programme in the near future, the chances of such an outcome in the following months are high.
USD/JPY
The yen showed almost no reaction to the decision of the BOJ as its meeting didn't bring any changes in the policy. Just like in the previous month, the BOJ promised to build up the money base in the country by ¥60-70trln/year. Anyway, it is disturbing that the serious drop of the yen against the previous year doesn't produce much impact on the foreign trade figures. The government and the Bank are staking on exporters, but probably there aren't any in the country already?
oil
Oil once again may reverse down. The chart clearly shows the descending resistance, off which the market will probably bounce for the sixth time. Yet, it should be mentioned that a series of the local lows is ascending, which doesn't presuppose a definite downtrend. Anyway, in the near term there are more negative factors for Oil( the slack economic growth and increase in inventories).
