EUR/usd
The US dollar keeps recouping its losses. It is remarkable that it is growing not only against the euro, but across the whole board. We can even say that the single currency looked steadier than many others yesterday. Thus, eurusd hit 1.3400 this morning. And this is the lowest levels since last November. Actually, we can already speak about the beginning of a rally in USD. And behind it there are perfect macroeconomic statistics. Yet, it is still disputable if the Fed's policy will lag behind these data. In addition to the news which feeds USD's strength, yesterday there was a nice report on the consumer confidence by Census Bureau. The index grew to 90.9. And it promises renewed consumer confidence in the economy and further development to the post-crisis levels, that is the rates of October 2007. It is no secret that this index is positively affected by the performance of the stock market, which has recently hit fresh historic highs. Today traders will focus their attention on even more important data, these are employment statistics for the private sector, which are expected to show more moderate rates than a month before. Many also agree with the importance of the GDP estimate for the second quarter. It is supposed that growth will correspond exactly to the decline of the first quarter of the year. Stronger data are able to provoke another tide of purchasing of the American currency. Towards the end of trading there will be a release of the FOMC's rate decision. The comments should be watched out for changes in the rhetoric. Possibly, the Fed will hint that the market schedules the rate increase for a very remote date.
GBP/USD
The cable keeps depreciating. The obvious downtrend of the currency shows that 10 out of 11 recent trading sessions have been finished with the decline of the sterling against the dollar. At the moment even our expectations of consolidation near 1.6959 are not justified. Technically, the previous growth from 1.6790 to 1.6920 was very quick and easy, so the reverse decrease may prove to be that quick as well.
USD/JPY
The growing dollar supports the pair's rally against the strength of its domestic economy. Now it is trading at 102.15, which is close to the monthly high (102.26). Expecting no new incentives from the Japanese authorities, we can only suppose that the rally will go on due to USD's appreciation. Yet, bulls may feel a second wind, seeing that the current movement is already above the 200-day MA. The nearest target of the movement can well be set at 102.70 – the upper bound of the 6-month range.
AUD/USD
The aussie, which generally ignores USD's rally, has fallen under slight pressure in the recent days. Yet, we should take into account that the currency manages to sit out in a very narrow range between 0.9330 and 0.9470. Now trading is held at 0.9370 and even if the Aussie moves towards the lower bound, it will hardly suffer liquidation, now observed in the Kiwi or the EU currencies.