EUR/usd
EURUSD is getting closer to last week's highs, again trying to consolidate above 1.3550. From the technical viewpoint, there are no serious resistances right up to 1.3750/80. Last week the pair couldn't go higher because of Bloomberg's article about possible introduction of the negative deposit rate in the ECB and because of the following release of fomc's meeting minutes. These minutes also pointed out a possibility of negative rates on the Fed's excess cash. Today the markets are worried about the following news: the biggest US banks wrote that should negative interest rates on excess cash be introduced they would be forced to set negative deposit rates. It means that consumers and companies will have to pay for keeping money in bank accounts. To put it mildly, consumers will hardly like that. It should be mentioned, the introduction of negative interest rates is only one of the potential measures considered for economic stimulation in case of need. However, there arise some doubts if it will be good for the economic health in the long term as it will impede deposit growth, forcing asset-holders to choose investments with less reliable return rates, which will make the economy more dependent on carry-trade cycles and turning to safe-havens. It concerns the European banks as well. Though we have never heard such warnings from them, the situation is hardly different. Most investors of big EU banks have been having minimal interest rates on their deposits for a long time. The introduction of negative rates by the ECB will only formalize the entrance of private banks into the period of negative deposit rates. The main question arising in this connection is if all this will help to intensify consumer activity and make economic growth steadier in practice.
GBP/USD
The pound-bulls again won a little victory yesterday. They managed to break the downtrend, which had formed at the beginning of the day. The pair found support at 1.6140 like on Monday and from there headed to make another test of 1.6200. Now trading is held near this level. Probably, we will see another attempt to break through 1.6250. The risk factor for the pair is the release of Second Estimate GDP for 3Q. It is expected that the first estimate of growth at 0.8% q/q will be confirmed, which is not bad at all.
USD/JPY
Yesterday all through the day the pair was under pressure despite relative placidity of stock markets. Today it seems that the situation is changing again. After a slight correction in the pair the bulls again feel strong enough to continue purchases. Over the last two days usdjpy has fallen from 101.90 to 101.10 and today's upsurge is likely to target at breaking above 102.0 and reaching 102.50 and then 103.70.
oil
WTI crude oil has stabilized at 93.40. It is close to the lower bound of the channel, where trading has been held since the beginning of the month. It's remarkable that depreciation of the dollar shouldn't produce any effect on the positions of Oil. It has never been seen before. Rather, Oil and gold used to grow against USD much more intensely than other currencies.
