EUR/usd
The trends of yesterday's sluggish session were quite similar to those seen a day before: gradual depreciation of the dollar. This is quite likely to develop into a new trend. The reversal ran like this: the slight gradual improvement last week with purchases on the intraday dips spilt over in triggering of stop-orders at the beginning of this week, which is confirmed by long candlesticks on short-term time frames (especially in the 15min-candles). The euro purchases despite the news made it quite clear that the bulls' intentions were serious. On Wednesday the pair was falling from the daily open of 1.2815 down to the daily low of 1.2735 and closed out the day at 1.2830. The most important thing here is that the day was closed above the 200-day MA, where the pair had been hovering from the beginning of the week. Yesterday the pair finally tore off this key average level. At some point the single currency was as high as 1.2897. It'll be rather difficult to break through 1.29 today since the liquidity is still low. Yesterday the US markets were closed for the holiday and today the trading session will be shortened. However, if the level is broken the pair may grow by another big figure on a new wave of triggering stop orders (a bit above 1.29). It will make the situation really interesting: the uncertainty around Greece may disperse a bit only on Monday, yet the market behaves as if it all had already been resolved positively.
GBP/USD
The British pound is in poor shape today. Despite the impressive progress of the single currency the sterling suffered selling yesterday, which speaks about the speculative nature of yesterday's move. The thing is that not long ago the situation was absolutely different: the British currency was preferred to the euro. Yet there is some progress. On Tuesday gbpusd struggled to break through 1.5940, now it is above this level. However, in the crosses (except for the yen one, of course) the pound is heavily depreciating against its counterparts. But those who trade the pound/dollar shouldn't be disconcerted about this – just like with the euro, the pair is purchased on the dips.
USD/JPY
It looks as if Friday had come only for the yen. Usually this day is marked by profit-taking, i.e. the market moves against the domineering trend. This is now observed only in usdjpy. The rest of the pairs are gradually following the weekly trend. Actually, the yen may afford some rest. The strong two-week growth of the kind was last seen only in early spring on the speculations that the BOJ would actively target the inflation, putting pressure on the yen. The current selling has the same reasons. Though, the strength of the motion is not that high. Actually, the current speculations are based jut on what the potential leaders of the government say, the CB itself keeps silence. In spring we heard commentaries of the BOJ, but they didn't influence the situation much.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar was not the best instrument to invest in this week, since it has significantly depreciated against most other EU currencies. Coupled with the dollar, the aussie only today has managed to grow to the closing levels of the previous week, i.e. above 1.04. Anyway, the pair has stuck in the narrow channel between 1.02 and 1.06 and the further growth will encourage the bears. Be careful before the December meeting of the RBA. The November meeting minutes showed that the Bank doesn't rule out the possibility of further easing.
