EUR/usd
It was a nervous and busy day yesterday. The single currency was yielding to the pressure put by the dollar demand. Here we observe quite a strange correlation and would like to enlarge on it. The large-scale selling of the yen stirred all the crosses with it, which in its turn forced market players to take their profits and switched to the liquid assets like dollars. This is where the decline of the euro by the beginning of the EU session came from. Further the initial decline was gradually offset. But still the pair hadn't managed to recover fully by the time draghi delivered his speech. Mr. Draghi, whom we called a good forecaster yesterday, expressed his concerns about the EU economic growth rate. That comment quickly sent EURUSD from 1.2830 down to 1.2740. But soon the market began to purchase the single currency. One of the reasons to purchase was unwillingness of the committee to employ innovative means to support employment and manufacture. And still Draghi made it clear that the committee keeps discussing the possibility of the rate cut. Some analysts say that this may happen in May. Anyway, here we speak about the future, while the asset purchases by the Fed and the BOJ have already been approved and are now carried out (in case with the Fed). Another factor, which supported the single currency, was a fresh portion of disappointing statistics on the US employment. The weekly unemployment claims proved to be worse than expected. The first-time claims grew to 385K (the highest level since last November). The continuing claims are consolidating around 3050K – the trend for decline has slowed down. Today's forecasts on the US employment speak about the job growth by 190K with unemployment remaining at 7.7%. In view of yesterday's poor data on claims, we believe that even the 170K increase will be treated as positive and will support the dollar.
GBP/USD
The failures of the US currency again put the British pound back on the upper bound of the three-week channel. The pair had been chased by the selling pressure near 1.5240 earlier. Yesterday it happened again. The growth impulse in gbpusd ran out on the approach to that mark. In this case the US employment statistics will be decisive for the further fate of the pair. Should the dollar be weak, the sterling will manage to break the strong resistance, which will give it more energy. Should it be a different way, we shall expect a further decline with fresh local lows (now it is 1.4850) within a week.
USD/JPY
The yen was sold all through the day with a short pause before the publication of the ECB's and BOE's decisions in the EU session. Then the currency resumed falling. usdjpy jumped to 97.15 tonight, yet by now it has won a figure back. The yen-traders got what they were after, now the further stop will probably be at the yearly high of 2009, above 101.
oil
The not very favourable news on the US economic activity causes a dramatic decline in the Oil price. Actually, Oil seems to be heading right for the levels where it began that unfathomable growth a week ago. Now the commodity is consolidating at 93, while yesterday it fell as low as 92.13.
