EUR/usd
It looks as though the forex market had decided to stay away from the rally in stock markets. Three days in a row American stock markets have been closing positive, however the Foreign Exchange has demonstrated almost no growth against the opening levels. This is particularly clear from the euro/dollar performance. The pair is still trading around 1.3060. There is a good reason for positive sentiments in the markets as US statistics mainly indicate that economic performance in the country is improving. Yesterday's data on the labour market show a decrease in the number of initial unemployment claims, as well as a serious decline (-79K) in the number of continuing claims. The statistics on leading indicators are also good news: +0.5% in November after +0.9% a month earlier. In addition the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan has been revised upwards (69.9 vs. 67.7). The only disappointment is lowering of the 3Q GDP rate. This has been mainly caused by lowering of consumer spending estimates. This isn't very good, but if we consider later data, it's clear that during the fourth quarter the situation with consumers was improving. It promises stronger data in the current and next quarter. In other words, Americans have a chance to avoid the new QE in the next few months. At the same time there is a great deal of talk about QE in the euro zone now. One of such methods is providing long-term loans at a fixed rate. To some extent issuing of unlimited 3yr credits at a 1% interest can be regarded as a promise to keep the rate at 1% until January 2015.
GBP/USD
The pound is still performing better than it could be. The growth in the stock markets supports the currency, but at the same time the pair is gradually rolling back after an attempt to break the 1.57 level. As far as the news is concerned, the 3Q GDP has been revised upwards from 0.5% to 0.6%. But a sharp increase in the current account deficits over the same period is of greater interest here. Instead of the expected 5.6 billion the deficit made 15.2, establishing a new anti-record in absolute terms. Britain has traditionally offset a substantial part of the deficit by means of exporting financial services. The last item has been suffering in recent years and it is expected to remain so for some more years to come. As has already been mentioned, the only hope for correcting imbalances in Britain lies in the improvement of the visible trade balance.
USD/JPY
Yesterday the Japanese yen managed to trade higher than 78.0, but yet it couldn't make any significant rally. The Thursday's maximum of the pair makes 78.20. However, on today's report about the earthquake in New Zealand the USD/JPY has dropped back to 78.0. This Friday the pair is likely to be listless all day long because of the Emperor's birthday celebration. Monday isn't expected to be volatile either, since most markets will be closed for Christmas holidays.
AUD/USD
The Australian currency is following the markets, having been gradually growing for 4 days in a row. Now trade is carried out close to 1.016. The message about the 5.8 magnitude earthquake in Christchurch hasn't significantly affected the markets, as no serious destruction and casualties have been reported yet. We would remind you that earlier in February the 6.3 magnitude earthquake claimed the lives of 182 people, and the damage it caused was estimated at $ 15.5 billion. This very city faced a less powerful earthquake in last year's September.
