EUR/usd
USD failed to carry out a full-fledged correction at the end of the last week. eurusd was fluctuating within the narrowing triangle. An upward touch occurred at 1.3292 last Friday. At the beginning of the Asian session the pair rose to 1.3356 for a while, but then again retraced to the centre of the range. The main event of the week is the Fed's monetary policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday evening. It's quite possible that while there are no drivers Forex will continue consolidating at the achieved levels. Before the Fed's decision the market can be spurred only by the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which will be published tomorrow. This index attracts much attention to itself, so if it deviates sharply from the expected rate (now slight growth is forecasted here), the euro may react accordingly. Another international event – G8 Meeting – is unlikely to be a catalyst of activity in Forex, as the leaders seem to be focused on taxing issues. Of course, here it's very important to act simultaneously and in concord to keep other countries from the temptation to soften their own regimes, which can attract firms to these countries and therefore harm the rest. Well, let's see what they will finally come to and if it is not too early to pass from stimulating to toughening.
GBP/USD
At the end of the week the sterling felt a bit better than the single currency. At the beginning of this trading day it again managed to go below 0.85. The moves in gbpusd are also interesting. The pair was attacked on Friday, the bears tried to take it below the 200-day MA. However, the bulls didn't stand aloof and quickly turned the situation into the correct channel. Now we can observe new attempts to push the pair down. Last week we mentioned that the key level of the MA was broken with little confidence, which very often is followed by a reversal.
USD/JPY
It seems that the yen is consolidating below 95 in usdjpy. However, we shouldn't hurry with asserting this as a week ago the consolidation at a higher level ended in with a much deeper decline. Abe is being attacked from all around. They say that large banks, trying to make up for the losses from cheaper bonds, have raised interest rates for borrowers, which can make lending even weaker. In our opinion, if the policy of about-zero interest rates hasn't managed to revive lending for 20 years, there is nothing bad in trying to stimulate other economic sectors.
AUD/USD
Albeit unevenly, the aussie is getting in shape. Gradually consolidating above 0.96, it can attract attention of strategic investors, willing to purchase a good currency at a low price. Tomorrow the RBA meeting minutes will be published, the release may produce some volatility in the market.
