EUR/usd
This Monday stock exchanges are mainly growing, though it's hard to single out any dominating sentiments. The euro started the week with a positive gap, which was closed in a few hours though. EUR/USD jumped up to 1,3375 at the opening (which coincided with Friday's maximum) and then again fell down to 1,3330. And at the beginning of the European session the quotes started to gradually crawl up and now trading is held approximately in the middle of the above-mentioned corridor. Today markets have received data on PMI of different European countries. On the whole, the data point at the conspicuous decline of manufacturing activity in the region, even despite the fact that statistics for Germany and Italy have been revised up. The German PMI made 48.4 in March against the prior estimation at 48.1. Anyway, the Euro-Zone Composite PMI has remained at the same level of 47.7, as was estimated at the beginning of the month. In contrast, the USA and Switzerland are mainly increasing their activity. There is a suspicion though that, judging by the results of 1Q, Euro-Zone has fallen into the technical recession after the slowdown in 4Q of the previous year. However, if the US economy manages to maintain the current pace of growth, it may tell favourably on the figures, demonstrated by Europe. The current week abounds in important news releases, which may produce a considerable impact on the course of trading for the whole month. Traders will have to face a difficult choice. The equity market has already climbed very high on the hopes that the global economy growth will speed up. If there aren't any obstacles on the way, the current levels will seem to be acceptable for buying. But there is also a grave risk that by summer the economic and business activity will again (for the third time) wind down and financial losers of Europe will again force its leaders to call countless meetings.
GBP/USD
After a short hitch on Wednesday the sterling now again feels in the saddle. On Friday the pair went above 1.60 and managed to close out the week, month and quarter above this mark. This promising start of the new quarter gives the sterling strength for growth today. At present trading is held at 1.6030 and the next level bulls may target is 1.6090. 1.65 may become another bullish target in the long run. The PMI data for Britain have been also published today. On the whole they show a picture of the more confident restoration of manufacturing activity. It's been recorded that the pace of activity growth has gone up from 51.5 to 52.1. But here it should be remembered that in contrast to Germany manufacturing in Foggy Albion is 10% lower than the pre-crisis peak and the GDP recovery process resembles the recovery after the Great Depression, for other economic slowdowns have ended with a quicker rise up.
USD/JPY
After a strong decline in February and the first half of March the Japanese yen has gone flat around 83.0. On the one hand, USD/JPY goes up on the dips below 82.0. But on the other hand, with the dollar declining gradually the pair has little potential for growth. Here it's seen clearly how traders' mood has changed after Bernanke hinted that tightening of the monetary policy shouldn't be hurried with and that the Fed may still extend the current QE programmes or invent some other tools to increase the funds availability.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is still below 1.04 and is now trading its 200-day moving average. In fact, since 1Q proved to be rather unfavourable for the aussie, many investing banks are now revising their forecasts. Thus, as was reported in the Morgan Stanley analytical note at the weekend, the strong development of the country over the preceding 2 decades was ensured by building up of leverage and increase in exports. Both the trends, as considered by the Bank, have changed and, as a result, the Australian dollar may cease to be a favourite of risk-traders.
