EUR/usd
eurusd has been flat since the beginning of the week, but even this is not enough to state a sharper growth of the dollar index since last November. Each currency has its own reasons to depreciate against the dollar. Thus, the euro is under the pressure of deterioration of the investment climate due to the sanctions against Russia. The cut of the interest rates by the ECB last week also hampers the attractiveness of the single currency. Anyway, the reaction last week and earlier this week was so strong that on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday bears managed only to maintain their positions. On the other hand, to launch a counterattack bulls need a reason. It can be posed by the poor retail sales data in the USA or extremely sharp decline of the consumer sentiment there. Though, frankly speaking, both the former and the latter will be a real surprise for the markets as in all other aspects the US economy looks very healthy. It is unlikely that the industrial production statistics of the eurozone, which will be published in the heat of the EU session, will be able to change the situation much for the better in this regard. It's more probable that the indicator will demonstrate decrease, which will arouse short-term pressure on the single currency. It is anyway hardly possible that bears will have enough reasons to intensify pressure and make the currency fall much below 1.29. And if bulls manage to summon their strength and fight back, taking the pair above 1.2950, it will be the first out of nine weeks when EURUSD closes positive. The technical indicators show that the pair is quite oversold, but for a pullback, even temporary, there should be a reason. If we don't see it today, we will have to hope only for the dovish mood of the Fed in the middle of the next week after another meeting of the fomc.
GBP/USD
With some retreats the sterling keeps crawling up. It proved to be quite hard to close the gap of the beginning of the week against the total attraction for the dollar. It seems that bulls hope to push the pair up to 1.6300/20 by the end of this day, which is quite real from the current level of 1.6260. Technically, RSI shows that the cable is working off overbuying/overselling on the weekly (not daily) charts. Here we still see some space for decline because unlike in March 2013 and May 2010 the indicator hasn't even reached the level of 30. The main reason for this is a sluggish character of the depreciation in the first weeks of the new trend.
USD/JPY
107.40 is the new high of the pair. Though the ascent has been more cautious in the second half of the week, it still persists, making the positions of the dollar index stronger. This week the gains generally made about 2.5 figures (if the current levels will be held till the market closure). A bit less than a year ago the pair suffered the same rally, when it rose by 8.5 figures from October till the end of the year. The current rally has already totalled over 6 figures. We still believe that till the end of the year bulls will try to at least touch the level of 110.
AUD/USD
AUD is a real sufferer. Despite the perfect employment data, published yesterday, and the progress in the retreat from the commodity boom for the Australian economy, the ore price reduction makes traders get rid of the currency. audusd has been depreciating as it was falling into the abyss. Now trading is held at 0.9050, which is three figures lower than at the beginning of the week.
