EUR/usd
Yesterday's economic statistics from the USA supported USD's growth. In accord with the preliminary estimate, the GDP grew by 4.0% annually after the decline in the first quarter had been revised to 2.1%. Thus, the decline in the first quarter proved to be less deep than reported a month ago (2.9%) and the further growth more than made up for the dreadful beginning of the year. Such a disposition allowed to think that the Fed doesn't need to hurry with a sharp revision of the growth outlook for the year. In its turn it suggests a possibility of earlier toughening of the monetary policy. At least, the debt markets react exactly this way – the yields of the US bonds are on the rise. However, the trend towards the dollar's appreciation proved to be unsteady. Near 1.3370 the pair received considerable support. Clearly there were players, purchasing the pair on the dips lower. However, the recovery got established only after the release of the Fed's rate decision. Though the commentary didn't mention the increased unemployment rate, it still pointed out sluggishness of the labour market. Also it was again remarked that the rate increase prospects are affected by inflation and that the period of time between completion of the QE tapering and toughening of the monetary policy can be quite long. An interesting thing, by the way. The Fed is refinancing bonds to maintain low rates. And if the CB stops doing it, it will also affect the interest rates and will become indirect controlled toughening of the monetary policy, leading to rate increases in the money markets.
GBP/USD
Yesterday there were attempts to take the pair below 1.69. bears coped well with it mainly due to the strength of the US GDP data. Anyway, the Fed's mild attitude and today's positive sentiment in the markets helped the pair hold above this level. Anyway, it is obvious that the currency is downtrending, even without significant pullbacks. This movement is hard to resist. It is even and systematic. Any purchases are sure to sink in sales. Certain support from technical levels can be expected only at 1.6770 or even lower – 1.6730.
USD/JPY
The yen quite unexpectedly made a jerk. It seems that the quiet times are over. Against the dollar's appreciation yesterday the pair broke through the resistance of the 101.20-102.75 sideward range. After small-scale profit taking, the ascent seems to continue. Here it is important to look out for an opportunity to consolidate above 103.00. Further important resistances are at 104 (April's high) and 105.40 (the yearly high).
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has still fallen under the rally of the American one. Yesterday by the end of the day audusd sank down to 0.93. Then there were timid attempts to pullback, but they were ruined by the poor data on building permits. In June their number shrank by 5%. Import and export prices also don't meet the expectations of the policy toughening in the near future. On the other hand, lending in the private sector grew well last month. But it is clear that signs of weakness are now greater in number than signs of strength.
