EUR/usd
Bernanke surpassed the optimistic expectations of the markets. The fomc announced the beginning of additional purchases of the mortgage-backed securities. For this purpose the CB is going to spend $40bln each month. Moreover, we shouldn't forget about the ongoing Operation Twist, which presupposes buying of long-term securities by means of selling the equal amount of short-term ones. The monthly volume of such transactions makes 45bln. All this is done to reduce the long-term interest rates. Besides, the period during which the Fed will be obliged to keep the interest rates low has been extended to mid 2015. Thus, in the interval of up to 3 years the rates are influenced by the zero interest-rate policy while for longer term securities a key factor is an additional buyer, which will remove these securities from the market for long. However, these are not the only changes in the approach of the CB. As has been mentioned in the commentary, this policy will be pursued even at the time of economic growth, until certain conditions are reached: the outlook for the labour market is more optimistic and inflation is forecasted at around 2%. Bernanke is really doing his best to avoid the Japanization of the USA. Though, the only thing in which he has succeeded for now is a new boom in the markets. The indices shot up yesterday, the dollar sank in the whole range of markets. It is very likely that this trend will continue for some more time. The situation looks really interesting: The ECB and the Fed are buying problem assets and seek to put a pressure on the interest rates in the debt markets, however this has become a double whammy for the dollar instead of being a kind of tug war, like it was in 2008/09. What we have now looks as follows: the reversal hasn't happened and the markets have been promised regular doses of adrenaline so they can keep growing. The dollar will be declining in the coming weeks and the euro, commodities and risk sensitive currencies will be in demand. Now EUR/USD is trading at 1.3040. The next stop will probably be only at 1.33.
GBP/USD
On daily charts the growth of the pound looks like a parabola. After the consolidation in June-July, in August the currency stepped into an uptrend, which was gaining momentum towards the end of the month. Now in September the British pound is flying up as if it was fueled with the rocket propellant. Anyway, against the euro, the pound doesn't look that good. It's normal though, as at the beginning of the month the ECB removed some risks connected with the troubled peripheral countries, which was to reduce or completely stop the capital flow from the Mainland Europe to Britain.
AUD/USD
The aussie is growing at such a pace that even 1.06 doesn't seem to be a limit. Apparently, the growth of the markets, including commodity ones, will help the Australian currency much by means of normalization of exports. In this case, the main battle in the pair will be fought not at 1.06, but higher at 1.08. Judging by the commodity prices, Bernanke has done especially much good to the developing and “commodity” countries.
gold
No one can keep up with Gold now. The rates of the precious metal have already risen to 1775. 1790 is the yearly high and if the metal goes above 1800 it will even come out of this year's corridor of the recent year. The support at 1530 was quite strong. The three attempts to get below it (in last September, the end of December and May) were successfully beaten off by gold bugs. It won't be surprising if Gold keeps rallying right till the end of the year and will make another attempt to hit a new global high.
