EUR/usd
Yesterday ECB President Mario draghi made a speech devoted to CBs' communication during the period of crisis. It is very symbolic since the market feels difficulty with discerning the ECB's signals. We constantly hear about a wide range of tools, which can be applied in case of need. In the meantime, inflation has slowed down to the lowest rates since 2009 and it is on assumption that, as opposed to that time, a year before the inflation rates were not increased. So, deflation forces are obvious. Yet, it is also obvious that the Committee members are at variance about the necessity of the monetary policy easing while the economy is growing at the rates unseen for many quarters. Yesterday's comments of Draghi about readiness to ease the policy stirred instant feedback – the euro tumbled down by 30 pips to 1.3790. However, at these levels the pair found support of those who didn't treat yesterday's words as preparation for the rate cut or launching of the bond purchasing programme already in May. As we mentioned earlier, ECB members will prefer to continuously talk about possible measures to put pressure on the markets (currency and debt ones) without taking real steps. The pair was quickly sold out and is now again trading close to the weekly highs ( 1.3740). If we look closer, the hourly and three-hour candles show how the support line is moving up, pointing out steady demand. The breaks down were quickly sold out, but sharp upward movements were not steady either. Bulls will have more chances after breaking above 1.3850, in case they manage to find sell stop orders.
GBP/USD
Britain keeps surprising with its strong statistics. Instead of the expected decrease by 0.4%, in March the retail sales rose by 0.1%. Thus, the annual growth rate makes already 4.2%. Yet, behind it there is only a contribution of the expensive fuel. Excluding this indicator, sales decreased by 0.4%, which is close to the expected 0.5%, while the annual rate totals 4.2% against the supposed 4.5%.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen is again in demand since the geopolitical situation has become tenser. usdjpy is trading at 102.15. Today's consumer inflation statistics, despite remaining in the positive trend, haven't met the forecasts. The general indicator for March was marked with the annual growth rate of 1.6%, while Tokyo according to the preliminary estimate in April already shows growth of 2.9% (against the expected 3.1%). The yen is again in the grip of the geopolitics, so investors don't pay attention to the possible easing, but simply aim at defending their capital in short term.
gold
Last night Gold sank below 1270. From the technical viewpoint it looked oversold at those levels and in combination with the political factors Gold has come into stronger demand. The short-term investors may already start getting ready to purchase this instrument. And those, who make investments with greater caution, may at last see consolidation above the 200-day MA (at the level of $1300 per troy ounce).
