EUR/usd
In the absence of important news players tried to take profits from the preceding growth in the pair. Because of that the pair moved away from the extremums and hit 1.3900 this morning. Today the markets will be focused on Draghi's speech at the press-conference after the rate decision. It's quite possible that we will hear again about readiness to act and that the continuous low inflation will be pernicious for the economic growth. Not only the market participants, but also journalists of every stripe and colour have been long in the know about this chapter of economic theory and as a result demand passing over to the practical part. In this connection we should beware of false movements, when the market after the violent initial reaction to this or that remark will then ‘buy out' these words, understanding that the ECB is as far from easing as a month ago. With regard to this Goldman Sachs say that now the probability of the ECB policy easing is lower than at the beginning of the year as then low inflation was caused by poor growth, whereas now prices seem to be ready to reverse up and the economy is showing the highest growth rate in the recent few years. Of course, the expensive euro hampers growth in the eurozone, but now eurusd is at 1.40 mainly due to weakness of the US currency – it can't be called extremely expensive against the yen, the pound and the franc. Even against the worn ruble the euro has suffered significant losses since the beginning of the month, especially over yesterday.
GBP/USD
The sterling failed to find a supporting point yesterday to perform a final jump to 1.70. During the day it was gradually sliding down from 1.6970 to 1.6950. Despite the fact that today the calendar highlights the BOE's rate decision as an important event, we should expect any strong volatility here. It is unlikely that there will be any changes or comments. The inflation report, scheduled for release next week, will shed much more light on the MPC's treatment of the situation. In the meantime the markets are more interested in the trade balance and industrial production statistics.
USD/JPY
The pair still finds it hard to break through 102.0. On the news about Putin's milder disposition in regard to the referendum in Ukraine and claims about withdrawal of the army from the borders with this country the market was purchasing risky assets, which brought usdjpy to 102. However the pair had enough bears, which pushed it down to 101.60. Now, anyway, we can again observe buying in the pair. The Asian stocks are enjoying the rally on the news about a higher trade surplus in China.
AUD/USD
The Australian employment growth proved to be a bit better than expected, making 14.2K. At the same time the unemployment rate remained unchanged – 5.9%. Earlier in February this indicator reached 6.1%, which according to the RBA can be a peak, which however may be followed by a continuous and sluggish decline. Australia lacks good news, so even these data were treated as positive. The Aussie has been growing against USD and its New Zealand vis-a-vis for two days in a row. Here it will be important to see how the currency will behave close to the recent local highs, i.e. at 0.9420 in audusd and 1.09 in audnzd. Should these levels be broken, we will be able to speak with greater certainty about fresh mass demand for the Aussie.
