EUR/usd
Just as had been supposed in our yesterday's review, the dollar kept putting on weight in the absence of important news and big trading volumes in Forex. In such conditions trading was held with that cautious mood which had formed during the Asian session, when the markets had been reacting to the disappointing GDP statistics for Japan. As a result, the lowest point was reached in the heat of the EU session and eurusd was falling as low as 1.3276, which is about 70 pips below Friday's close. By now the single currency has managed to recoup a part of the losses and returned to 1.33. This day promises to be more active. Thus, Europe is waiting for the release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany – one of the earliest sentiment barometers, which can produce strong influence on the course of trading. And before the beginning of the US session there will be a publication of the US retail sales statistics, which in case of a sharp deviation from the expected rates also may affect the quotes. Both Europe and the USA are expected to demonstrate growth of the basic indicators, however, ZEW is supposed to show a stronger business activity (the index growth from 36.3 to 40.3) and in the USA retail sales are forecasted to grow by 0.2% after the growth by 0.4% a month ago in the general index and by 0.4% in the core index, excluding auto sales. In our opinion, under such circumstances EURGBP is more likely to grow, at least to last week's closing levels. Also we cannot exclude the probability of the rise above these levels (1.3340) and preparation to test 1.34 again.
GBP/USD
Britain may also have a busy day today due to the release of inflation statistics. Though the importance of this indicator is not that high in the period of QE and concentration of the monetary policy on the labour market performance, we still can't completely exclude influence of inflation on the CB's policy. Yesterday the British pound was depreciating, unlike the euro, gradually all through the day, and by the beginning of the Asian session reached 1.5440, which is 80 pips below the high, set a day ago, and 130pips below the peak hit last Thursday.
USD/JPY
The yen purchases after the release of the GDP statistics didn't last for long. The thing is that though the published rates make you doubt active economic growth in the country, they are still enough to be proud of against Europe and even the USA. This is why you shouldn't be surprised that the Asian exchanges are growing today, pulling along usdjpy. From the lows at 95.80 the pair has managed to grow already to 97.30 and still has good potential for the further growth.
AUD/USD
Another warning, we made yesterday, proved to be true last night. Once the aussie-traders switched their attention from China to Australia, the situation immediately changed for the worse. The July data on the business confidence again turned out to be negative, being down at the lowest levels since last November: -3 against 0 a month ago. The Business Conditions Index remains at -7, which is the lowest rate over the last 4 years. All this takes place despite the rate cut and depreciation of the Aussie, which should help domestic corporations increase their competitiveness.
