EUR/usd
The consolidation of eurusd yesterday eventually ended in with the break through the upper limit of the range, which led the pair to the daily high at 1.3381. Despite the fact that it is a really impressive scale for the move without reason, the bears immediately took it as an opportunity to sell the euro at a higher price. From the end of the New York session till the end of the Asian one the single currency was gradually depreciating. Now the rates are at 1.3350, which can become a good level of support. In the meantime, the market remains sluggish in the anticipation of the Fed's commentary. It's not necessarily that the rate decision and the following press-conference of Bernanke will generate high volatility, but this risk still exists, so players fear staking before getting precise information. Over the last two months there have been too many moves provoked first by expectations of the stimulus rollback and further by reconsideration of these expectations. However, the dollar is just half the story, we also have the euro, where expectations may be also significantly revised. ZEW Economic Sentiment is published today – if the actual data prove to be very different from the expected rates, it will probably stir the market. In our case the market will be more eager to support growth above the expectations, which will be favourable for the euro and will help to break through 1.3390, which is the highest level reached last week and which remained unconquered after yesterday's upsurge in the pair. Above this level there is a direct road to 1.36, the importance of which has already been highlighted in our previous reviews.
GBP/USD
The British pound, just like the euro, is trading sideways around 1.57. The sterling now feels worse than the euro – on yesterday's surge it even failed to hit fresh daily highs. During the Asian session today GBPUSD one again touched the 200-day MA. The situation can be improved by the country's inflation statistics. The indicators of consumer inflation and of producer price dynamics are published today. Upon the whole the annual rates are expected to grow due to the weak base effect (at that time a year ago there was a decline). If the rates go beyond the expectations, it is likely to support the MPC doves.
AUD/USD
The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps putting pressure on the aussie. The RBA's statement on the meeting at early June indicated that the Australian currency had the potential for decline and that the risk of the rate cut still persisted. Generally speaking, in the previous years the CBs evaded questions regarding the currency rate. However, the new reality is that the export-oriented countries see the simplest means of economic stimulation in weakening of the domestic currencies.
oil
Oil is heading for the four-month high. Partly it is a result of decrease in the US inventories, yet we also cannot disregard the general weakness of USD. It is interesting to see what will happen at these levels. Over the last 9 months they have served as a starting point for 6 downward reversals with drops at least by 4 dollars.
