EUR/usd
The single currency is trying to grow against the news. The main reason for bulls' enthusiasm is the cautious tone of the ECB members, who are usually neutral about the monetary policy. The Bank's representatives make it clear that QE can be expected only if the situation in the EU deteriorates sharply. Now it's hard to imagine what it can be – either a new spiral of the debt crisis or, which is more likely, economic slowdown with inflation remaining low. It's important that investors should ignore signs of economic slowdown in the eurozone, as across the ocean there aren't any obvious signs that the recent strong employment stats will make the Fed bring closer the day of the policy toughening. Only in that case the contrast in the monetary policy may prove to be evident enough to make the US currency rally. But now investors don't sell the euro even on the news about decrease in the German industrial production by 1.8% over a month. Formally, today's trade balance data for this country have proved to be better than expected (18.8bln against the forecasted 15.7bln). Yet, it has happened as a result of import decline right by 3.4%. Exports have shrunk by 1.1%. Such statistics dooms the export-oriented economy of Germany to troubles with growth in the future. Besides, the euro/dollar have grown immediately after the release. Other producers of the eurozone, also export-oriented, openly demand employing the exchange rate policy as a means to support the suffering enterprises, helping the periphery and France to do away with anemic growth and tendency to reduce the budget deficit by spending cuts.
GBP/USD
The cable remains above 1.71. Though it hasn't been growing lately, this situation looks more like consolidation before another jump up. Despite the fact that we can hardly expect any comments from the BOE after the decision on the interest rate and QE programme this week, market participants nevertheless prefer to take their profits, ensuring themselves against the risks. In the meantime, we should beware the beginning of the global profit-squeeze in the pair.
USD/JPY
The yen has been growing against the dollar for three consecutive days, bringing usdjpy to its 200-day MA (now 101.75). It speaks about difficulties the pair has with continuing its uptrend, while the BOJ pursues the mild monetary policy. Partly it is connected with the cautious tone of Fed's comments and partly – with unwillingness of the country's officials to unpack new incentives, referring to positive business sentiment. Yet, here they overlook the chronic trade balance deficit over the recent three years, which is so unusual for the export-oriented Japan.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is trying to recover after last week's selling on the comment of the RBA's governor that the aussie was overestimated in many criteria. Now the AU dollar is supported by growth of metal prices and the long-awaited revival of the labour market. Against such a background AUD is again making attempts to catch hold of 0.9400, below which it dropped last Thursday.
