EUR/usd
The single currency keeps drifting down. The periods of consolidation are followed by sales. Now, when most exchanges are closed for the Catholic Easter, the market, most likely, will trade sideways. The week promises to be quite eventful, despite today's lull. eurusd is again at the local lows, below 1.28. Now it is trading at 1.2780, while last week's low was 1.2750. It's unlikely that slack trading in a few markets will provoke the break of this support. The currency markets in such days may be very volatile should some extraordinary events occur. But in the absence of such events currencies fluctuate inside the trading range of the preceding days. Probably, the best strategy today will be to stake on the bounce off the 1.2760-1.2840 range. Anyway, the short period of consolidation doesn't reverse the downtrend, formed in February. The global support of EURUSD is at 1.20 now. Only here we can expect that big players will start purchasing the single currency. And at the current levels the euro will suffer from the sovereign debt crisis in the region and difference between the growth rates of the USA and the euro zone.
GBP/USD
Quite expectedly, a short period of slack dynamics in the pound (last week we described it as profit-squeeze) has taken a turn for new purchases of the British pound against the euro. EURGBP has hit fresh two-month lows. Technically, this move is far from its end, but this week may prove to be really hard for the sterling. The main issue is about the QE extension. Of course, the influence this programme produces on the sterling and economy is not strong, anyway it's difficult to buy the pound while the BOE actively increases the money supply.
USD/JPY
The Japanese Tankan, released today, has fallen short of expectations. The activity indicator for big corporations remains negative, though with a slight improvement after the downfall in 4Q 2012. The usdjpy has reacted to the news by sinking down to 93.80. Anyway, at these levels the pair has met quite a good demand. The major factor which can stir volatility is the meeting of the BOJ scheduled for the end of the week. Until then the comments of the country's officials, especially from the BOJ, may create some volatility in the yen.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar also prefers to strengthen its defensive line before tomorrow's meeting of the RBA. Since no one expects any changes in the rate (now it is 3.0% – the historic low), all attention will be turned to the accompanying commentary to understand what the Bank is going to do next. The stakes that it will be the rate cut were melting away all through the last month.
