EUR/usd
Yesterday we once again observed dissonance among the markets. The dollar and stock exchanges were falling at the same time. Each move can be explained, but it's not very often that you see risk-aversion and purchasing of the European currencies together. The recent dynamics is the reverse of the preceding moves, when against the positive news from the USA the country's domestic assets were in demand and it was also clear that the Fed was more likely to toughen its policy than the ECB. Last week we got visual evidence that those considerations were a bit exaggerated. The US economy is growing, but jobs are created at the below-the-trend pace. From draghi's commentary it became clear that in May the ECB was closer to rate cuts and introduction of negative interest rates on deposits than in June. These are fundamental changes in positioning and they will possibly impact players for a few more weeks. Thus, two processes – consolidation of the stock market and growth of the single currency – may run together in an absolutely organic way in the coming days. Within this uptrend eurusd may rise to 1.36. However, now it is hard to say if it will be strong enough to break through this resistance as the news background remains calm and balanced. There's a certain decline in the energy prices, which eases pressure on the Fed regarding the policy toughening.
GBP/USD
The sterling still feels worse that the euro. For example, the euro hit a fresh local high against the dollar last night, while the sterling was already 20pips below the highs of Thursday (1.5685) this morning, yet it's trying hard to break through them. Yesterday's release of industrial production statistics didn't arouse any strong reaction in the market, though this indicator grew by 0.1% in April after the increase by 0.7% in March. Traders were somewhat disappointed by the decline in manufacturing production. Remember that for gbpusd an important level is now at 1.57, which is also the current level of the 200-day MA.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen was gradually falling almost all day long yesterday. Partly it was a result of the disappointment with the current inertness of the BOJ and partly buying of safe-haven yens was caused by weakening of stock exchanges. Due to this selling usdjpy dropped below 96, forming a possible double bottom. These levels seem to be attractive for buying, at least, for the intraday one.
AUD/USD
The beaten Australian dollar, which yesterday hit the lowest level since September 2010, seems to be able to rise. Partly it's become possible due to weakness of USD, but also it cannot be denied that the aussie's current levels look quite attractive for buying.
