EUR/usd
The euro/dollar remains in the uptrend. Last week the level of resistance moved from 1.3000 to 1.3050. And the resistance of bears is only at 1.3170 now. Technically, a “flag” is forming. And usually it spills over into continuation of a trend. In our case, should 1.3170 be broken through with confidence, traders will get a buy signal with the approximate target at 1.3570, which is our long-term target. Talks about further growth will be sensible only after these levels are reached. Yet the ability of the single currency to stand firm above 1,36 seems to be more and more doubtful with time. Setting the time frame for our trading scenario, we believe that the pair will move to 1.36 in the course of this week and the first half of the next one. Further, it is likely that a reversal will take place. There are two reasons for that: firstly, the ECB's meeting, which can bring new hints at the readiness to cut the rate, secondly, the labour market with its payrolls release next week which may also reverse the market. This week it's worth paying attention to the Flash PMI for EU countries and also to the German Ifo. There aren't much statistics today. The only release that should be taken into account is Existing Home Sales. Another month of growth to the maximum levels for the post-crisis years is expected.
GBP/USD
The sterling is flirting with danger. It is growing faster than the euro, to say nothing about its appreciation against the dollar. gbpusd has been eagerly purchased on the dips since the second half of the week. Charts clearly show that there have been only 3 negative four-hour candles since Thursday and the pair has grown from 1.5160 to 1.53. Thus, the pair has fully made up for the drop , which happened after the release of the MPC's commentary in regard to the market's attention to the future tightening of the policy. Be careful, as for growth from the current positions the sterling will also need good news.
USD/JPY
Abe's party has won an absolute majority in the Upper House. Note how eagerly the Japanese supported the decisive mood of the politicians. The country is tired of the endless economic crisis and willingly votes for those who has the courage to bring serious changes. And this is despite the fact that it will entail lower standards of well-being as inflation will eat up savings of pensioners. Anyway, usdjpy wasn't very eager to grow and at present is trading slightly above 100.
AUD/USD
The aussie keeps trading inside the channel. The general weakness of USD lets AUDUSD trade in the upper part of the range, but the markets don't dare to make big steps (above 0.93) before the next rate decision by the RBA, which is scheduled for August 6. To put it more correctly, before the commentary of Glenn Stevens. Before that time, the major risk is posed only by the US payrolls.
