EUR/usd
The euro resists dollar's pressure. The US currency was appreciating against many assets and asset classes yesterday, but the euro managed to win the day. The euro-bulls can hardly celebrate the victory, but anyway we should admit that eurusd was purchased well at the daily lows (1.3355) and even demonstrated a series of ascending intraday highs and lows. As a result, the bulls managed to bring the pair up to 1.3426. Last night the pair was again pushed below 1.34, which means that the bears still keep control of the situation. On the whole the market has been balancing in a narrow range of 1.3350 – 1.3425 for four days in a row. Today the markets are set to go on the defensive. It's partly a result of overall concerns around nuclear tests in North Korea. That was brought to notice by the South Korea's Defence Ministry with reference to the seismic activity reported by the US geological survey. These messages may make this day quite nervous for the markets. Anyway, should the status quo in the EU news background persist, the market will probably move towards the upper bound of the above mentioned channel. Moreover, even within the downward channel there is some space for the upward maneuver. This is what we count on today, however we consider this bounce to be just a good chance to sell the euro at a higher price, we don't stake on a break with the further upmove. North Korea with its nuclear missiles will hardly hold the market's attention for long. It has frequently happened before.
GBP/USD
The sterling was King for a day. To be more exact, for a couple of days, but yesterday it again got in thrall of grim reality. All the Thursday's and Friday's gains in gbpusd were lost yesterday and the pair again dropped to its former level of support at 1.5640. Again the euro and pound were moving in different directions. All this adds vitality to such a commonly non-volatile pair as EURGBP. Over the last week the pair fell by 3%, which usually takes 2-4 weeks. But just over Monday it again grew back by 1.5%.
USD/JPY
The Japanese yen again reached 94 against the dollar. Yesterday we mentioned that at these levels the pair doesn't look very stable, especially before the g20 summit, where the monetary policy of different countries will be discussed. It's striking how sentiments should change. A few years ago the Japanese managed to convince the world community in the necessity of the joint intervention. Then it turned out that the major part of work in this “joint” intervention was done by Japan. The rest simply kept out of its way. Later the Japanese Finance Ministry acted alone against the market and now, as it seems, will have to struggle against officials from other countries.
AUD/USD
The steady resistance of the euro, rare attempts of the pound to save face and from-time-to-time retracements in the yen – nothing of it is seen in the aussie. It has been rolling downhill for four weeks in a row. Now trading is held at 1.0250 and this is the four-month low. In our opinion, the Aussie's performance is very indicative of the real market sentiment – the defensive disposition and purchases of the dollar. The level of 1.0180, where the pair was purchased last September and October can turn into a strong support.
