EUR/usd
EU lenders have agreed to ease off on Greece. To reach this agreement the IMF needed three hours-long meetings over the last three weeks (for example, the last meeting took 12 hours). It's been decided that €40bln of the debt will be written off to reduce the debt/GDP ratio down to 124% by 2020. The agreement presupposes that write-offs will start in the year, when Greece achieves the budget surplus. Now it is expected to happen by 2016. But we all know that there is a high risk that this term won't be observed. Yet, such perspectives hardly upset the market, the most important news now is that Greece has managed to escape bankruptcy. The single currency has come close to 1.30. There were a few attempts to break through this level at the start of today's session. Now the EU debt crisis will again focus on Spain. Now, after the elections, Premier Rajoy will have his hands freed. The bailout request from Spain would have contributed even to a more confident victory of the separatists in Catalonia. Yet even without this request the separatist parties collected 64% in the region, but to hold a referendum they should poll 2/3 of the votes. For this reason the single currency breathed a sigh of relief yesterday. Also it's quite remarkable that the euro is showing very modest gains today and was trading sideways on Monday. These are the aftereffects of Friday's rally. The single currency needs new incentives for growth. Without them the chances of a retracement are high. The most significant news releases today are scheduled for the afternoon. They include statistics on durable goods, consumer confidence from Conference Board and also on the housing market.
GBP/USD
These days are quite important for the British pound. Yesterday it was reported that on July 1, 2013, the current Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, will be appointed as the next Governor of the Bank of England. In the press-release by Her Majesty's Treasury Carney is called the best candidate for the post in the whole world. You can't argue against this, since Carney has never worked in the circumstances in which King did. However, the facts speak for themselves: the Canadian economy has exceeded the pre-crisis peak, unemployment is just a percentage higher than the pre-crisis level, and moreover, the crisis hasn't affected the housing market, despite the nearness of the USA. Today the markets will focus their attention on the revised GDP for 3Q.
USD/JPY
Yesterday was a relatively quiet day in the stock and currency markets, which helped traders reshuffle their portfolios. The yen was in demand on the profit-taking after the anti-rally of the previous two weeks. As we expected, usdjpy tried to go below 82.0, but didn't stay there for long. Today the purchases in the pair have resumed, and trading is again at 82.20.
AUD/USD
The aussie is still on the rise. This morning the currency hit the high of the beginning of the month. The high of 1.04889 is at the levels last observed in mid September. The market sentiment is favourable, the risk-demand is gradually growing. 1.05 may become the next target. Yet the question whether the pair will be able to reach 1.06 and break through it remains open.
