EUR/usd
If in the first hours and days after the deadline the US dollar didn't suffer much pressure, now it is obviously getting in the downtrend. It is especially clear against appreciation of the single currency. The thing is that the euro is supported by the fact that the political crisis of the Italian government has been resolved. Berlusconi's party supported Premier Letta in the vote of confidence, which occurred under pressure of the party and its leader. Besides, Obama himself makes the situation tenser. In the political game against the republicans he reminds that further delay in the budget adoption decreases chances for the well-timed raising of the debt ceiling. And this is already a catastrophe, implying the debt default. It is remarkable that commentators are pretty sure that the default won't happen as if it did it would be a real disaster for the world's financial markets. The press message that ‘Treasury will invent something'. It is a very dangerous situation when no one knows what will happen, but everybody hopes that someone will invent something. Shifting of responsibility for taking decisions has been a bright peculiarity of the American politics in the recent years. Unfortunately, of the non-American politics as well. In connection with the government dissolution some important releases regarding the States will be cancelled. In particular today we will be left without employment statistics (payrolls and the unemployment rate). For the period of the political mess we have at our disposal only stats from private agencies and data on unemployment claims, which are formed at the level of particular states.
GBP/USD
If before the sterling was persistently growing, now it is persistently falling. The pound-sellers are not much worried by the general weakness of the dollar. Yesterday the pound had retraced from 1.6240 to 1.6150 by the end of the day. During the Asian session we could see a slight bounce, but now the pair is again getting closer to 1.6150. The retracement came in bad time, the bulls were just 80 pips away from the yearly highs. However, we can understand them – how could they be strong enough after the rally of seven and a half figures over just a month? And from the lows in July we get over 14 figures.
USD/JPY
The yen is especially illustrative regarding the effect of the government dissolution on investors' attitude to the dollar. Yet, today its growth has been boosted by weakening of stock exchanges and also by absence of readiness for the further incentives by the BOJ. This became known from the commentary to the regular monetary policy meeting of the Bank. In such circumstances bears have a chance to test the 200-day MA, which is now at 96.60.
AUD/USD
The aussie is again acquiring the status of a safe haven. Of course, the monetary markets of the US and Australian dollars are incomparable, but more and more often after a short period of weakness of the US currency, interest in the Aussie rises.
