EUR/usd
Because of the Easter holidays the markets have stayed in the mode of restricted dynamics since Friday. On such days it's better to be on the alert to catch a sharp movement of the market should some unexpected news arise. In the meantime, without such news trading is held within a very narrow range. On Friday eurusd was fluctuating in the range of 20 pips between 1.3822 and 1.3806 (at the closing time). During the Asian session today the pair went as low as 1.3804 and now it is again at the top of the mentioned range. As far as the news background is concerned we expect only secondary data on the USA in the afternoon. In this connection there is a feeling that the pair will remain within the 1.3800-1.3820 range.
GBP/USD
The British pound looks much more courageous than the euro, still taking advantage of the strong macroeconomic background. As you remember, the country's unemployment rate decreased to 6.9% over three months ending with February, also in March the unemployment claims declined by over 30K, which promises further improvement here. The BOE's forward guidance, announced last summer, promises that the policy won't be toughened while unemployment remains above 7%. Though over this time the Bank has managed to convince the markets in the vanity of hopes for the rate increase in the near future, traders are getting more and more sure that the BOE will raise the rate earlier than the Fed. This sentiment explains the cable's stay above 1.6800. Anyway, we treat this period of the pound's strength as a lucky moment to sell the pair on growth. The British economy is closely connected with the European one, which is now trending for slower growth. At the same time, the expensive pound will be producing a negative effect on tourism yields and the geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Europe will contribute to funds outflow from the financial capital of Europe.
USD/JPY
The Japanese currency continues its cautious decline. The news feeds attribute such performance to the publication of the poor foreign trade reports. But in our opinion, buyers are getting this short-term support from strengthening of the stock exchanges on the strong reports. The trade balance data should be considered together with the claims of the BOE officials. Since the latter still believe that the economic recovery continues, the import growth by 18% in comparison with 9.4% of the export growth may not serve as a trigger forcing stronger support.
gold
Gold is suffering due to the stabilization of the geopolitical situation. Being below $1300 per troy ounce, this metal is again dangerously close to the lows of early April ($1277.5). On approaching this level Gold may get support from cautious investors, who stick to the opinion that the situation in Ukraine is not improving yet.
