EUR/usd
The US stock markets have halted their upsurge and Forex has recouped some of the dollar's losses. Thus, eurusd declined by 15pips to 1.3785 over the day, thus breaking the series of ascents. It is also remarkable that bears tried to break lower and hit a 5-day low at 1.3768 during the Asian session. The market cautiousness can be attributed to closeness of the fomc's meeting. It is to start today and tomorrow we will learn the decision. The market participants do not expect any changes, but are cautiously getting ready to hear the new commentary of the Fed. Some, including us, expect that the commentary will contain hints at the stimulus rollback already in the coming year, in the first or even the second quarter, when consequences the October government shutdown will be eventually clear and when we will see if lawmakers have decided on something regarding the long-term fiscal plan. There were not much statistics yesterday, but the market's hunger for information added importance to yesterday's releases on the US economy. The Index of Pending Home Sales surprisingly declined in September. The reported decrease by 5.6% over a month proved to be the strongest for the last three years. The blame for it lies with tightening in the mortgage market, which reached its local peak in September, when market players expected tapering from the Fed. A bit earlier we had received industrial production data, which on the contrary had surpassed expectations. Capacity Utilization Rate grew to the levels, which hadn't been seen since July 2008. The index made 78.3%, which is very close to the levels when capacity utilization will be excessive, thus pointing at overheating. Yet, industrial production grew by 0.6% in September and by 3.2% yearly, the index reached the level of 100, which means the return to the average rates of 2007. But for the government shutdown and all that uncertainty affecting the economy, we could say that the USA keeps showing confident economic growth, approaching the point, where the CB's incentives will be unnecessary.
GBP/USD
Profit-taking on the threshold of the Fed's meeting mainly affected the sterling. After a period of consolidation it got down to searching for local lows. This morning the pair went as low as 1.6063, it means that from the highs set in the middle of the previous week the correction has made almost two figures. Today all eyes will be turned to the US retail sales, so we can expect stronger correction or resumed growth only closer to the US session.
USD/JPY
The yen doesn't hurry to depreciate against the dollar. Yesterday's upsurge of the pair ended at 97.70 and now the market has returned to 97.50, which was observed a day ago. In the meantime, consumer spending of the Japanese is growing. Retail sales increased by 3.1% y/y in September against 1.1 in August. Household spending (another research) grew by 3.7% against September 2012. Besides, the unemployment level decreased to 4.0%. The first two indicators surpassed expectations, while the third one met them. However, it didn't seem to be enough. This week trading will be more influenced by the US news and only at the end of the week we can expect that the BOJ will attract attention of investors.
AUD/USD
The aussie keeps following our scenario. Last night the correction continued and during it the Australian dollar dropped to 95 cents of the US currency. It is quite reasonable to expect that the correction will develop further.
