EUR/usd
On Thursday the markets again performed out of concord. The single currency grew and the stock exchanges, on the contrary, depreciated, unveiling the unsteadiness of the four-year highs hit earlier this week. The mood of stock exchanges was spoilt by the statements of the Fed's members, who split over the future of the incentives. Charles Evans, a traditional dove, called for the further stimulation of the economy. James Bullard, who actually belongs neither to hawks nor to doves, on the contrary asserted that there was no urgent need in incentives. The important thing here is not so much the comments as the attention of markets to them. You see, neither of these Fed's representatives is a voting member this year. So, just imagine what will be when those, who shape the policy this year, voice their opinions. We believe that the markets were pretty much aware of the fact that the minutes published yesterday had been formed at the time of a deep pessimism. Almost immediately after the meeting the economic indicators started to come out better than expected and point at a more favourable state of affairs. Most probably, Ben Bernanke and the team of Fed's policymakers won't be in a hurry with launching of new incentives in September, but this measure is quite likely to be taken at the end of October or in early December, on drawing near the fiscal cliff. FOMC seems to be very concerned about this event, while congressmen are mainly busy with the electoral race. At present traders are too focused on the summits of EU leaders to pay attention to the economic indicators. Yet it wouldn't out of place. The preliminary PMI statistics seem to be rather alerting. The German service sector failed to keep afloat and joined the production on the way to reduction. The German Composite PMI makes just 47.0, which is the lowest level since 2009. Again we see analogies with 2009, when the economy shrank by 4.1% just over the first quarter! Technically, EUR/USD has approached the upper boundary of the channel with the last daily high at 1.2589. So today it's quite likely that we will see taking of profits and a correction in the opposite direction. The bears will fight for the opportunity to consolidate below 1.25 as yesterday they failed to push the pair down despite the fall of stock exchanges.
GBP/USD
The British pound shows a less strong dynamics than the euro. The currency was growing well yesterday and even made several attempts to break above 1.59. However, there, above that mark, profit-taking and pressure on the stock exchanges cooled the ardour of the bulls. At night the cable felt much better largely thanks to the expectations of analysts and traders that the final GDP estimate would prove more optimistic than the previous drop of 0.7%. On the whole, the figure has met the expectations, being revised up to 0.5%. However the components of the estimate have demonstrated a serious slump. The private spending shrank by twice as much as expected, straight by 0.4%. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation reduced by 3.2%. The worse situation was last seen only in 2009. The government proved to be unable to increase spending either (0.0% q/q instead of the expected growth at 0.3%). Exports and imports have also made their contribution in the general grief and the trade balance deprived the GDP of the whole percent point.
AUD/USD
Choosing between yesterday's depreciation of the dollar against most EU currencies and sell-offs in the stock exchanges, the aussie finally opted for the latter. The strength we saw in the currency a day ago was short-lived. Immediately after the attempts to break above 1.0550, the pair faced sell-offs, which still continue. Now the Aussie is below 1.04. The correction in other exchanges will cost dear to the Australian currency, whose traders prefer to close their numerous long positions.
USD/CAD
The canadian dollar seems to have reversed as well. Just like at the beginning of the year, USD/CAD didn't managed to break below 0.98. Now if markets stay neutral, the pair will probably try to consolidate around the parity. But in case of further sell-offs (which is quite probable due to the overpriced oil and a high market estimate given to American corporations) another trip towards 1.03 will be quite possible.
