EUR/usd
We can't say that trading in Forex is as quiet, to be more exact listless, as about a month ago, however no definite trend has set in yet. The single currency has performed a nice jerk since the start of the week, bouncing off 1.28 and getting to 1.2967 yesterday. Yet, the currency passed exactly the same distance from mid Friday till the beginning of Monday's session in Asia. Probably, we'll see another move down to 1.28 soon. EUR/USD looks quite unstable above 1.2950, so at the end of the US session traders started to purchase the US dollar. The leading newswires keep talking about Spain as a reason for rises and falls in the euro. In our opinion, the situation there hasn't changed much lately and the major cause of fluctuations consists in the portfolio rebalancing before the next quarter. As you remember, the launch of QE3 should reduce the yield of bonds in the debt markets. This means that their price will go up, which will make their share in the portfolios larger. Same with stocks: they went up in price and their share in portfolios has increased in the last few months. Thus, we expect the moves opposite to the main trends of the year. As far as the single currency is concerned, it's difficult to identify any trend. The year started above 1.30, but further sales drove the pair to 1.2040, then draghi's pledges reversed that trend, and Bernanke's QE3 put an even greater pressure on the dollar. We still believe that till the end of the year the US dollar will remain in the downtrend, finishing it close to 1.4. The market is probably waiting for the official bailout request by Spain. It is rumoured that this may take place already next weekend. Though Premier Rajoy is categorically denying it. Yet, all the countries, which finally asked for a bailout, in the beginning didn't acknowledge the need in it.
GBP/USD
The news vacuum we saw yesterday can be regarded as just a lull before the storm. Already today the economic calendar looks more diverse, promising higher volatility. The Construction PMI data, released yesterday, proved to be poorer than expected. The fact that the index remained below the “waterline” of 50 pips (the actual value of September has made 49.5 against 49.0 in August) points at the further decline of the sector. Then, as estimated by Nationwide, the house prices have decreased. The annual decline rate is again 1.4%. The improvement observed in the construction sector and housing sales of the USA hasn't reached the British Isles yet. Here the prices and sales volumes grow just to fall again.
AUD/USD
If by cutting the interest rate against the market expectations the RBA aimed at putting a pressure on the aussie, then it has succeeded. The support of 1.03 held out just for a few hours and since the beginning of trading in the USA, the Australian currency again faced active sales. As a result, AUD/USD has dropped already down to 1.02. The next support passes through 1.0165 – this is the previous local low, which the pair hit in the first days of September.
gold
Though the dollar has become much stronger over the last 24 hours, the rates of Gold, as well as other commodities, have entered the consolidation phase. A troy oz of Gold costs 1770, yet the price hasn't changed for three weeks. Earlier the bears failed to start a full-fledged correction and yesterday the bulls didn't manage to seize the level of 1790 (this year's high). Gold lacks fundamental support since the world's real interest rates (with inflation excluded) are still going down.
