EUR/usd
Bernanke spoke again to the Congress and for the second time confirmed his adherence to the bond-buying policy. Traders have caught at the phrase that the size of asset purchases can grow as well as decline. The markets , which see only what they want to see, got ablaze with the hope for the possible increase in the programme, should fresh signs of economic slowdown appear. Here we should also note that Bernanke and his team intend to rev up if the GDP growth rate goes below the trend one. Yet Germany insists on stopping bond purchases immediately after the situation ceases to be extremely poor. This is the key difference between the politicians on these two continents. Easing on the Fed's part going along with the contraction of the ECB's balance help eurusd grow, but the leading growth rate of the USA and the simultaneous collapse of many economies of the euro zone don't let the pair go far from the land. So for the last four years it has been balancing between 120-1.50. If events unfold in the same way, we should be ready for the growth to the upper bound of the range. In this case this week's decline from 1.36 to 1.3010 should be regarded as a retracement within the bounds of the uptrend. Such large-scale retracements (and sometimes even bigger ones) have been frequently observed in the recent years, but they have never changed the general upward or downward trends. If the support of 1.30 isn't broken in the coming couple of weeks, it will be possible to speak with certainty about continuation of growth in the euro/dollar. Fortunately, there are sound prerequisites for that. Despite some shock after the elections in Italy, yesterday's debt auction was quite successful, which speaks about confidence of investors. Besides, the indices of business and consumer confidence in most European countries are in the growth phase now.
GBP/USD
Bernanke's speeches in the last two days have affected the dollar so much that even the acknowledged looser of this year – GBP – managed to make an upward bounce. No matter how ironically this sounds, the rating cut has initiated formation of the support base for the pound. The weekly open ay 1.5070 proved to be the lowest point. The bears' attempts to break below the weekly low yesterday morning were repulsed on the way to 1.5080.
USD/JPY
The correction in usdjpy seems to have come to an end. The bulls defended the level of 91.0, so since the US session the pair has been systematically purchased. Now trading is at 92.40, which brings us closer to a very important level, which earlier served as a support (on February retracements) and now equally well may turn out to be a resistance. In the mean time, Haruhiko Kuroda was officially nominated for the post of the BOJ's head. And he honestly said that the inflation target of 2% wouldn't be easy to reach.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has carried out its task. Yesterday it fell below 1.02 where he found a lot f buyers. Today trading is held at 1,0270. But in our opinion speculation within the broad range between 1.02 and 1.06 is still a good strategy, however to be on the safe side it would be better to wait for the RBA's interest rate decision scheduled for the next week (March 5).
