EUR/usd
Instead of the expected growth the US dollar demonstrated a decline yesterday. It's remarkable that eurusd managed to get above 1.30. If the pair consolidates at this high, by the beginning of the week and the month we will get the rate above the important psychological level and above the 200-day MA. This disposition can arouse a considerable purchase interest. We still have doubts about the further growth, having in mind the US and EU fundamental indicators, but are less sure that this scenario will develop in the near future. As this week has showed, the US dollar does not necessarily come in demand on the decline of stock exchanges. The market is distancing itself from the carry-trade strategy. Moreover, the list of high-yield currencies is shrinking. EUR rate already doesn't differ much from USD rate, the aussie and Kiwi also have low yield. And against such a background the process called “the Great Rotation”, when bond investors rotate cash into the stock market, is happening. But if this process really takes place now, it is coming to its end as the US stock indices have been showing growth for seven months in a row (they will hardly manage to lose 3.7% today). The growth period of the similar length was last seen only in 2009, when stocks were recovering after the global lows. Once again we call to caution as far as speculation for further growth of the US exchanges is concerned – EURUSD is under threat accordingly. In addition, the Head and Shoulders formation seen in the weekly charts gives no peace – there the pair has just come off the neckline. Theoretically if this pattern develops it may bring the euro to 1.20.
GBP/USD
The pound is generally growing, but each time at the start of the European session it has quite a lot of sellers. Yesterday the sterling lost almost a figure for about two hours, but in the end not only recouped the losses, but even hit a fresh 1⅟2 – week high, breaking through 1.52. Today the currency is again trading close to this level, as if the latter was of the same importance for traders as 1.30 in EUR.
USD/JPY
Trading in usdjpy was no less volatile – the pair flew from 100.45 up to 101.80 yesterday. But by the start of the EU session today the pair had been at this mark again. It seems as if big bears were willing to fight for the level of 100 at the month's end. If the pair manages to close above this mark, it will be the first time since September 2008.
AUD/USD
The Aussie remains a looser. The feeble attempts to break above 0.97 yesterday stumbled over selling. Here the bears are much stronger. The downward trend still continues. We are drawing a bead on 0.9550, where the pair reversed earlier this week, but we also do not exclude the further decline to 0.95.
