EUR/usd
After Tuesday's fears and profit-taking in risky assets, the euro is gradually coming round. And though the day promises to be eventful, stock markets are trading positive. As a result, EUR/USD rose from the lows below 1.31 and is now trading at 1.3170. Today the ECB will hold a regular meeting on the monetary policy. However, the markets will want to pay more attention to draghi's press-conference, where he will probably lay his own assessment of the second LTRO auction and speak on the further plans and views of the Bank. For all its importance, the ECB's meeting won't probably come as the most risky event of the day. The fact is that later on Thursday or early on Friday markets will see data on private sector investor participation in the Greek debt swap. Remember that for the deal to close successfully the participation rate of all creditors have to be over 66%. However, even this won't be enough. Even if the deal will be regarded as done, 90% of all money should be involved to reach the required level of “participation”. It is rumored that 14% of the creditors are not obligated to participate, and if they take the opportunity, it may eventually ruin the whole deal. However, today's agenda brings us good news as well. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in February came in at 216K, which allows us to expect the Non-Farm payrolls reach the 235K level. The figure is above the average market forecasts and may partly explain the moderate positive, currently dominating in the markets.
GBP/USD
Just like the euro, the sterling is gradually recovering from the weak start of the week. The Cable is now trading at 1.5760 against the 1.57 low, hit on Wednesday night. Today the Bank of England will announce its decision on Interest Rate. At the moment, the Bank's policy is expected to remain unchanged, so the release of the official commentary and strong reaction of markets are hardly possible. The asset purchase programme is going on and will be completed by May. Accordingly, changes in the MPC's mood can be expected only in April. Before that the sterling is likely to follow general market trends.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is almost totally ignoring the fundamentals. Yesterday traders were buying the Australian currency all through the day, even despite the weak GDP figure, which came in just at 0.4% in 4Q. This morning couldn't boast any particularly pleasant news, but still the aussie soon managed to continue its growth. The labour market has quite unexpectedly lost 15.4 thousand jobs, and unemployment rose from 5.1% to 5.2%. When compared with the rest of the world, the situation is not that bad, but the risk of the RBA's policy easing in the coming months has grown.
NZD/USD
The positive sentiment in the markets and upbeat comments of Alan Bollard managed to support the Kiwi. Overnight the Bank announced the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. In the accompanying commentary the RBNZ's head emphasized that the domestic economy shows signs of improvement and that in the next six months the activity is going to rise due to the reconstruction process after the earthquake. In addition, inflation currently holds in the middle of the target range. In other words, the Bank can now just sit back and watch the development of affairs. The main risks are on the outside.
