EUR/usd
Friday's correction in the markets must have made many feel nervous: at some moment EURUSD sank down by a figure from the highs of the Asian session – to 1.3030. Anyway, by the end of the trading day the single currency had managed not only to recoup its losses, but also hit a new intraday high. The bulls managed to close the week above 1.31. Yet the bears got somewhat stronger already during today's session in Asia. Almost the whole package of China's statistics proved to have fallen short of expectations, which forced the markets to hastily liquidate risky positions and the euro again fell below 1.31 to 1.3060. Altogether Friday's correction and today's retracement produce an impression that the bulls' strength is on the wane. This shift away from risks is supported by the stock exchanges, which have been falling for two sessions in a row and have already lost more than a percent. The Chinese statistics showed that the economy slowed down to 7.7%, again approaching the multi-year lows, reported in the second and third quarters of the previous year. The industrial production behaves in the same way – its growth for 12 months was 8.9% in March. The growth of retail sales also remains moderate. The quite handsome rate for developed countries (12.5% y/y) gives rise to concerns regarding the prospects of strong growth in China. With time the country will find it more and more difficult to maintain a high growth rate by means of production increase as labour costs in the country are not as attractive as, say, 10 years ago. At the same time to maintain the domestic consumer activity high won't be very easy either due to such a low inflation rate (in March it was 2.1% y/y).
GBP/USD
The sterling also suffered much from the massive closing of long positions in the markets. GBPUSD was gradually depreciating on Friday (compare with the growth impulse in the euro at the end of the trading day). Besides, China's statistics also strongly affected the pair. As a result, against the maximum rates in the pair, exceeding 1.54, now trading is held close to 1.5320. The bears will feel more confident if they break through 1.53. But it's not quite clear if it is possible considering the news vacuum in Britain today.
USD/JPY
The yen-bears did their job and now are taking a break. Last week there was a fight for the mark of ¥100 per dollar. Formally, this level still remains unconquered (the high is at 99.93). This week we see an active profit-squeeze, which has already driven usdjpy to 98. According to Fibonacci's theory, this correction may last right till 97.15 ( a 38.2% retracement from 92.70-99.90). Besides, the profit-squeeze is supported by Kuroda's statements that the economy is showing signs of improvement ( today all the regions have reported an improvement against the previous month).
gold
There's a big movement in Gold. We've already mentioned that the support at 1550-1570 is vital for this instrument. But we couldn't even imagine that after breaking below 1560 Gold can lose over a hundred of dollars. This morning Gold futures with the shortest maturity dropped to $1425. It is 26% less than the high of 2011, when the rates were as high as 1920. Formally, we can state the beginning of the bearish era in the Gold market. Earlier the rates have also declined by more than 20% from the peak (it is a sign of the bearish market), i.e. crossed the line of $1536. But never before there has been such a dramatic drop, by over $100 in very few hours.
