EUR/usd
Yesterday the single currency was retracing. More so, it returned to the trends of January. The euro, commodities and stock exchanges were growing, while the yen, sterling and a number of commodity currencies (AUD and CAD) were under a heavy selling pressure. Once again the good performance of the euro was fed by positive news from Europe. The Final Services PMI, released yesterday, was significantly revised up as compared with the initial estimate. The index of activity in the services sector of Germany has grown to 55.7 against 52.0 a month ago and the initial estimate of 55.3. It's a good rise after the disastrous figures of August- November. The chance that the German economy will go on the increase this quarter is growing, anyway the decline in 4Q last year still remains. The loan markets are performing well. Yesterday's auction results showed that the yield of short-term bonds had returned to the positive zone. Combined with the decrease in the yield of periphery debt securities it reflects stabilization of the EU loan markets. The same with France, where the yield of short-term government bonds has become positive.
GBP/USD
The British pound didn't enjoy its victory over the euro for long. Now Monday's performance, when EURGBP fell from 0.8700 to 0.8570, is regarded just as a short-term correction and profit-squeeze at the end of the month. Yesterday the pair returned above 0.8650. Against the dollar the pound dropped to 1.5630. The poor sterling is playing out our scenario too quickly. According to it, the decline may easily continue until 1.55 is reached.
USD/JPY
There are plenty of reasons to sell the yen. Yesterday the BOJ's head Shirakawa announced that he would resign his post three weeks before the appointed date. That's because of the ceaseless pressure of Premier Abe. Thus, the new bank governor will take up the post on March 19. usdjpy hit 94.0 last night, which is the highest level since May 2010. Well, it's interesting how the pair will behave at 95.0.
AUD/USD
This week the Australian dollar has hit our target – the 200-day MA . Trading is now held around this mark, i.e. around 1.0310. The formal reason for that was the poor report on retail sales. It will hardly be easier tomorrow. Job Advertisements published at the beginning of the week demonstrated a more dramatic decline against the previous year – to 18.4%. The aussie is just a figure away from the lower bound of the half-year channel.
