EUR/USD
Now the situation in the markets looks more reassuring than at the end of the previous week. There is a growing feeling that the drop by over 5% since the day of Obama's reelection was a too pessimistic reaction of the market players to the possible fiscal cliff. Sure, the issue is serious and risks are real (we do remember that last-moment deal in the style of the best American action films in August 2011). However, at the current levels the stocks look rather attractive for buying. The investor interest is growing with the approach of Thanksgiving Day, when the markets are more disposed to a rally. These sentiments help the Asian stock exchanges stay afloat today, boosting demand for risky assets. Because of that the single currency is moving off its local lows. After the drop down to 1.2690 at Friday's US session eurusd has managed to rebound to 1.2770. It is equal to the levels seen at the same time on Friday and has driven the pair farther from 1.2660, the low hit at the beginning of the last week. But still the 200-day MA is far above, so there's no point becoming a bull. The successful break through this level in the coming days will allow us to speak about the possibility of further growth. On the whole the situation in Europe remains the same. The uncertainty about the bailout terms for Greece persists (few people doubt that the money will be allocated, the question is by whom and on what terms). Just like a week ago, the IMF's view of the problem stays different from that of the EU's. Anyway, Europe manages to make its way forward through the thickets of potential risks. The trade surplus with the rest of the world is growing more and more confidently. Friday's statistics showed that in September it grew to 11.3bln. A year ago the figure was 1.6bln. Since the beginning of the year the surplus has amounted to 60bln against the deficit of 5.3bln over the same period in 2011. Unfortunately, the improvement of the export has been well recouped by the drop of the domestic demand. For instance, the industrial production has shrunk by 1.1% since the beginning of the year while the retail sales growth has remained unchanged.
GBP/USD
The British pound showed strong resistance to Friday's sale-off. The bears' attack on the euro wasn't that successful against the pound. gbpusd was pushed down to 1.5835. And since then the pair has risen to the highs hit on September 9: trading is now held above 1.59. It's quite favourable for the pound that it has managed to stay above its 200-day MA during the last sale. This day promises to be quiet for the sterling. The only stats of interest are these on the housing prices from Rightmove. Despite the decline of the average price of a house by 2.6% in November, the annual growth rate has grown from 1.5% y/y to 2.2% y/y.
USD/JPY
At the beginning of Monday's session in Asia usdjpy grew above 81.50 at some point. That run of events was quite predictable due to two factors. Firstly, it is still expected that the government will urge the BOJ to ease the monetary policy more actively. And secondly, here's a slight improvement of the mood at the stock exchanges, which also contributes to selling of the yen and growth of risk-sensitive currencies, including the aussie.
AUD/USD
Last week the Australian dollar managed to defend the level of 1.03 against USD. It is a very good sign since earlier this year the active purchases of the Aussie started at lower levels, close to 1.02. Just like with the pound the bulls successfully protected the 200-day MA.
