EUR/usd
Monday's selling interest was not spurred yesterday. The market is back at the week's opening level. However, all the attempts to consolidate above 1.3600 proved to be futile. The pair rose as high as 1.3613 and rolled down below 1.36 while the Asian stock markets were going through a correction. The stock exchanges went into profit-taking after reaching the six-year high in Nikkei and the US stocks continued to decrease as expectations in regard to QE had been revised. This is what we have been preparing you for so long. The US central bank, in theory, can cut the volume of monthly bond purchases by 10-20bln a month already on December 18. The actual effect of this tapering will hardly be very significant. Psychology is important here, as it is not a mere turn towards the policy toughening, but a real step in this direction. In theory, it should not only give rise to profit-taking in the stock markets, but also support the dollar. But now we see the former rather than the latter. Apparently, the European stats are crucial for the pair. Today we'll see the release of Final Services PMI for November. The Manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, was not bad upon the whole. Moreover, other business sentiment indicators also looked optimistic. This has held in check expectations that the ECB's support will be extended in the near future. Now we shouldn't expect that tomorrow's meeting will result in adopting new measures to stimulate the economy. In this connection the markets give major importance to the US news. This afternoon ADP's non-farm employment statistics will be released. They are expected to demonstrate growth to 174K after 130K a month ago. It would be the strongest growth for the last 5 months and could fuel confidence in dollar-bulls.
GBP/USD
The sterling also tried to go back above 1.6400 yesterday, but didn't manage to stay there for long. By the end of the day the pair again had been pushed down below this mark. From the technical viewpoint the next important support and resistance lie at 1.6250 and 1.6500 accordingly. Today is an eventful day (apart from numerous US releases there also will be a publication of Services PMI) and it may push the pair out of this range.
USD/JPY
It seems that yesterday there was a short-term pullback in usdjpy. The pair was pushed from 103.36 to 101.97, but since last night it has been gradually recouping its losses despite the decline of the stock exchanges. This recovery may go on, but it would be more reasonable to stand on the sidelines before the release of important news from the USA, since the correction may prove to be deeper.
AUD/USD
This week abounds in events for the Aussie as well. Yesterday there was a release of the interest rate decision, where the currency was called overrated to contribute to economic rebalancing and today the country has published its GDP stats, which have turned out to be quite poor. The economy grew by 0.6% in the third quarter, but these quite impressive gains were called disappointing by the analysts as they are below the trend rates. Besides, the growth was mainly boosted by exports with their favourable pricing environment. It is remarkable that these sectors demonstrate growth without improvement in employment. Working efficiency is getting higher, but it will hardly be to the liking of households.
