EUR/usd
Quite unexpectedly for us the currency market turned in the direction of the dollar's decline. It occurred even before the beginning of the EU session, that is without any reason in the news background. As a result, from the daily low, which we described in our yesterday's review (1.3461), the pair grew to 1.3536 in the midst of trading in the USA. The movement to that area marked a return to the zone of highs after the Fed's decision not to change the policy. If so, it means that the market has decided to get even higher, collecting stops above the yearly highs. And this is above 1.3700. Let's treat it as an alternative, which will stand a chance of being realized if the market manages to get above 1.3570. Yet now we see that risks from the economy and politics far exceed opportunities for growth. Besides, together with September the fiscal year will end, so ‘big money' will be shifted from one pocket into another. In this case there will arise the need, at least, in profit-taking after the dollar's antirally in September. It is quite possible that traders will try to balance their portfolios before the end of this week, but it can't be excluded that it may happen at the end of the next one, when another package of the US employment stats will be released. For now the fresh news is that the US Congress has renewed negotiations regarding the debt ceiling. Yesterday's data on Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales met the forecasts and therefore didn't produce any impact on the rates. In our opinion, a sudden increase of US oil stocks against the expected decline last week was noteworthy. It remains to understand either Americans consume little or mining companies produce much.
GBP/USD
The pound got enough support to return above 1.60. At the end of the trading day yesterday the pair rose to 1.6085, which is a figure above Tuesday's lows. Now the cable is 80pips away from the highs hit last week on Wednesday. In the meantime we keep getting news confirming growth of consumer and business activity. Yesterday CBI indicated increase in the sales index in September to 34, that is to the highest level over more than a year. The British economy has performed quite well in the recent months, but it is a big question if it will manage to maintain this pace till the end of the year.
USD/JPY
The sluggish growth of the yen was interrupted by a message that the government was considering reduction of the corporate tax. This idea either gets support of lawmakers or lingers behind the scene, affecting the markets. Cautious traders should better stand off the Japanese assets, as this country's policy is rather unpredictable and can significantly influence both the yen's rate and stock prices. Now USDJPY is trying to get above 99.00, from where it was pushed down by the market correction in the first half of the week.
AUD/USD
The aussie is trying to consolidate around 0.9350, getting advantage of the growth of Asian exchanges. Anyway, the Australian currency remains weak in comparison with its rivals. While the euro has almost returned to the area of last week's highs and the pound has recouped over 50% of its losses, the Aussie is dangling at the lower bound of the channel, since traders are worried that the RBA still points at the high rate of the national currency.
