EUR/usd
Opening of banks in Cyprus let the single currency heave a sigh of relief yesterday. No doubt, the euro grew mainly on positive sentiments, nothing more. There are still no reasons to believe that tomorrow things will be better than yesterday. Purchases of the single currency were supported by the inclination to take profits from the previous drop. Yet the bulls didn't manage to push the currency far from the four-month lows. eurusd was growing to 1.2840, but now is again hovering at 1.2800. We shouldn't expect any volatility in the markets today, as most of them are closed for the Great Friday. The fact that the quarter and the month come to their ends may play against the single currency today. In such times investors often switch to liquid dollars and yens to rebalance their portfolios. Even a quick look at the markets makes it clear that investors prefer the US bonds. The S&P index hit a high yesterday. Such dynamics improves mood of the market players and can even make the household indexes grow slightly. However, the major problems in Europe as well as in the USA remain unsolved. The business activity either decreases or grows much slower than it normally should. Under such conditions, when we have to choose the best out of the worst, the scenario of the euro depreciation – of gradual, but obvious down trend – again looks quite possible.
GBP/USD
Yesterday morning the sterling felt some difficulty with growth. This was due to the technical factors as sell-orders in EURGBP were closing – the profit squeeze after opening of Cyprus banks. However, by the end of the day everything was again back in its place. The sterling was again in demand even in comparison with the dollar, and EURGBP continued to fall down to the area of its two-month lows. The pound/dollar is still trading sideways, while the euro/dollar keeps falling, making up for the overbuy of the previous months.
USD/JPY
The pair found some good support at 94.0. Almost all through this week usdjpy has been pushing off this level, but actually has failed to pass to the offensive. In March we've observed the tendency to purchase the yen on the dips as exporters have been repatriating their profits. Judging by today's statistics, the impressive decline of the yen since the second half of the previous year hasn't managed to spur the consumer inflation yet. This February the headline CPI decreased by 0.7% against February 2012. The preliminary industrial production statistics for February are terrible. The production has shrunk by 11% against the previous year.
oil
Oil keeps surprising us with its impressive growth. WTI is more than 97 $/barrel today, whereas at the beginning of the month it was below 90. It will be interesting to see how this instrument will behave above 98 $/barrel. If the bulls win, it will pave the way up to 105.
