EUR/usd
EUR is again on the defensive. Since the end of the previous year we've often observed long-term trends in the currency markets, one- or two-month long. It's noteworthy that while in the previous years we saw a division into risky/safe currencies and assets and unison movements in accord to this division, this year attacks have been mainly launched at one particular currency. Since February such an attack has been targeted at the single currency. The pair, gradually falling from 1.37, reached 1.2750 at the end of the previous week. Clumsy attempts to bounce off on the almost low trade volume on Friday and Monday developed into systematic selling on Tuesday. Today the pair continued its way down to new weekly lows, below 1.28. Yesterday's final PMI from the eurozone failed to inspire optimism in the markets. A slight upward revision didn't change the situation: the manufacturing sector of both periphery and core economies is shrinking. Unemployment is growing. Eurostat reported yesterday that the number of the jobless grew by 33k in February. The unemployment rate is already 12% (the January rate has also been revised down to this level). Today the markets will switch from Europe to the USA. The ADP data on the private sector employment will be released later in the day. The attempts of the agency to improve a correlation between their own data and the official statistics have been disappointing so far. If we leave this aside, the forecasts generally promise employment growth by 203K in March against 198K in February and 215K in January, which is actually within the same range.
GBP/USD
The return of liquidity to the markets and reshuffling of portfolios connected with the beginning of the new quarter have been hard for the sterling. It took the cable only one day (yesterday) to sink by two figures, now it is again trading below 1.51. The resistance at 1.5260 is eagerly defending itself. Yesterday's selling of the sterling made EURGBP return half of the last week's decline, now the pair is again testing 0.85. Anyway, it will be a big day tomorrow, today trading can be balanced.
USD/JPY
Tomorrow morning we'll hear the long-awaited publication of the results of the BOJ's meeting led by the new chairman. The expectations are quite moderate – extension of the existing asset purchasing programme. It'll be nice if we hear some hints that the unlimited bond-purchasing programme will be launched at the end of the current year instead of 2014. In the meantime, usdjpy is recovering after the drop to 92.60. Now trading is held at 93.50.
AUD/USD
And again good news from Australia. The country's trade balance in February proved to be much better than expected. Exports grew by 3%, while imports shrank by 1%. As a result, the deficit made only 0.2bln against the forecasted 1.0bln. Probably, thanks to Cyprus, Australia will for a while have an almost zero trade balance and the peak of mining and investments into it will probably be postponed from the middle of this year.
