EUR/usd
The last trading day of the week, month, quarter and with some countries of the fiscal year didn't pass without a sale. On Friday the single currency lost the gains of Thursday – it dropped down to 1.2840 and this night it came close to 1.28. The pressure of this week has been caused by the renewed concerns about the manufacturing slowdown of China. The official data on the Manufacturing PMI have been pointing at the slackening of business activity for two months in a row. It is surprising that notwithstanding this fact the markets, which already last week had the evidence of China's slowdown on their hands, still believed in the government's incentives and now simply have got down to selling risky assets. It's not the most promising start of the week. Formally, the gradual selling of EUR/USD was observed in the previous two weeks, and the most decisive attempt to break out of the corridor was made at the end of the last week. Yet the bears proved to be stronger, having driven the pair down to its 200-day moving average and even having made an attempt to push it lower. Those, who build their strategy on Fibonacci retracement levels, stay calm as formally the euro hasn't corrected all its growth from late July till mid September (1.2040-1.3170) yet. Only taking of 1.2740 can shake the confidence of bulls and trigger opening of short positions in the euro again. Unlike the previous week, this one promises to be quite busy. We look forward to four CB interest decisions (RBA, ECB, BOE, BOJ) and the monthly US employment statistics, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. Don't hurry with taking a decision. Quite likely, this week will be full of false jerks both in one and the other direction.
GBP/USD
For the British pound last Friday was even a harder day than for the euro. Taking of the profit from the perfect performance in the previous weeks and months turned against the sterling. However, bulls shouldn't give up. Unlike the ECB and the Fed, which in September started to provide a bigger support to the markets, the BOE isn't expected to change its policy at this week's conference. Some modifications may be seen only closer to November, when the current target of the asset purchase programme will be reached. Most likely, in November the Bank will add another 50-75bln, but will hardly increase the pace and hurry with the announcement of these measures this Thursday.
USD/JPY
After the BOJ had taken the decision to extend its asset purchase progarmme three weeks ago, USD/JPY jumped above 79 for a while and then began to fall, which continued right till Friday. The pair found some support below 77.40 and even shot up above 78 on the increased demand for the dollar; however, since the beginning of the week we see the reverse drift of the pair. Apparently, till October 5 (the next conference of BOJ) the market players will keep tormenting the Bank and Finance Ministry, trying to find the boiling point, which will be the start of the large-scale intervention. 11 months ago that was 75.50.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar, just like the euro, hit its 200-day MA this night. Though, as opposed to the euro, this was not the first time in the recent days. Since major concerns are now about hard landing in China, the aussie-traders feel more nervous than anyone else. As has already been mentioned, this week will be full of important events, which will significantly influence the further trends. And from the current levels AUD/USD has equal chances to reverse up or continue to fall.
