EUR/usd
Many traders know very well that May is not the best month for buying stocks, and this year was not an exception. Yet the most interesting thing is that the crisis peaked in May not only because of the economic slowdown, but also as a result of political uncertainty. The biggest mystery surrounded Greek elections and their outcome. Given their preference to the parties supporting the EU membership and bailout Greeks have made it clear that they don't want to be Europe's outcasts. Many commentators still keep estimating how favourable the EU disintegration could be in the current situation, but it seems that this issue is no longer that high on the agenda. The chosen solution finally appears to be right. Now the matter depends on the EU leaders, who are to set forth a plan of further integration within the euro bloc. In the meantime the experts, who track the fomc's sentiments, more and more tend to think that after a two-day meeting the Fed will announce another round of Operation Twist. This news has a positive effect on the risk demand. Since the beginning of June the single currency has managed to break the downward trend, albeit nervously and with occasional drops. It's quite likely that the upward movement will persist. Yet, we don't know for sure if it will develop into a month or two long correction or into a reversal lasting till the end of the year. This wholly depends on the steps the officials will take, and it is always connected with a high degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, it's most likely that till the end of the month the euro/dollar will try to break above 1.30 again.
GBP/USD
The sterling resumed its movement against the dollar at the end of the last week. All through the second half of May the British currency had been trading below the 200-day moving average against the greenback. However, at the end of the last week the pound performed a powerful spurt by over 2 ½ points from the daily low and got close to this mark. As seen from the overbought/oversold indicators, by now the severely oversold sterling has already returned to the neutral zone. Nevertheless, it's unlikely that the appreciation against the dollar will be followed by growth against the euro. Most probably, in the coming few weeks the euro will feel good against the pound.
USD/JPY
The dollar/yen is fairly recouping the growing demand for risk. This morning the yen was depreciating against most actively traded currencies. Friday's drop down to 78.70 has stumbled over plentiful purchases, so the pair remains above the 200-day moving average. The global downward trend is still in place, but as the old line of resistance has been broken it's no longer that distinct.
oil
Last week Oil traders realized that low political uncertainty would have a negative impact on the Oil prices. This again made the WTI quotes go to $80/barrel. Yet, high risk demand didn't cause any significant oil purchases during the Asian session today. Black Oil opened with an upward gap close to 85, but couldn't move further. The second round of Operation Twist can spur the growth of oil prices, however in the coming days Oil is likely to be moving cautiously.
