The market is pricing in the ECB’s QE

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

There are good and bad news concerning the ECB. Good news is that the market is still cherishing hopes for bold moves on the part of Draghi. Much is expected to be done, including quantitative easing (unsterilized bond purchases). Such steps will slightly push the boundaries of the mandate, but hardly anyone will penalize the CB, which tries to preserve the EU integrity while nobody else cannot or doesn’t want to do that. Bad news is that the process of negotiating and setting up of the bazooka may take much time. Those, who have been expecting to see some action from more…

Wearied after the rally

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week abounded in heavyweight economic events, and the current one promises to be even more nervous. Draghi pledged to do his best to protect the euro. Already on Thursday he will have this opportunity when announcing the decision on the ECB’s monetary policy. Now the most probable turn of events is that the CB will buy bonds of ESM/EFSF. However, there are a few forecasts that suggest the rate cut. It’s worth mentioning that the cut of the official bank rate will lead to the negative rate on the ECB’s deposits. This means that the banks will have to pay more…

Nothing fundamental, just techniques

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Mr. Draghi is surely a more prominent figure than Ewald Nowotny. This is why his performance produced such a strong reaction in the market yesterday. And though the slope towards sales in the euro was really sharp, we didn’t expect that fixing of ‘shorts’ would run without even the slightest attempt to fight for an important psychological level of 1.20. We believe that yesterday’s growth of the euro up to 1.2320 after Draghi’s commentary was technical rather than caused by a sharp change in the market sentiment. The ECB’s head said that the Bank would do its best to protect the more…

Fixing of euro ‘shorts’ may last longer

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Frankly speaking, it is hard to believe that behind yesterday’s surge in the euro there was just a phrase of ECB’s Nowotny about the intention of ESM to apply for a banking license. First of all, don’t forget that this takes place in Europe, which means that there can be a dozen of different opinions on this issue and also some cunning term condition from Germany. In addition, even if it happens, all the possible deadlines will be already missed. The funniest thing is that the Constitutional Court of Germany hasn’t decided yet if ESM’s existence is in line with the more…

Running on the spot

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week the positive corporate reports provided immunity against euro sales in Forex. Surprising enough, but very often optimism was maintained by favourable sales outlook while the actual reports weren’t always strong enough to delight investors. This week the situation in the euro zone has remained pretty much the same. The existing problems are still unsolved, but corporate reports don’t make the markets happy any longer. Yesterday we mentioned that over Friday and Monday the S&P 500 futures approached the lower boundary of the ascending corridor before a possible growth. However, yesterday the bears proved to be stronger, breaking down that more…