Up… but with caution

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

S&P revised down Greece’s rating outlook to ‘negative’. Remember that after private loan restructuring the outlook was ‘stable’. It’s all about renewed issues with getting tranches from the IMF. The latter is currently putting an intense pressure on the ECB, urging it to restructure Greece’s debts, belonging to the Bank. The European Commission, seeing the deterioration of the outlook for Greece, couldn’t put up with the revision of the initial economic targets (the debt-to-GDP ratio at 120% by 2020). And it means that this level can be achieved only by artificial reduction of the debt load. Anyway, the news concerning other more…

EUR will grow if Italy and Germany don’t quarrel

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The market was rather anemic yesterday: there weren’t any vital economic releases and some local markets were closed. The Forex market performed in the corresponding way. Having started the day with recouping of Friday’s optimism (max 1.2443), the single currency dropped down at the heated EU session (min 1.2341). However, by the end of trading the pair returned right to the opening levels, i.e. 1.24. Tuesday promises to be an eventful day. Looking at the EU statistics, Factory Orders are worth considering. The release will bring data for June, when the single currency was steadily trading below 1.30. On the one more…

EUR in demand on strong US statistics

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Our forecast that the US statistics would go beyond expectations proved to be true. However, the following reaction was absolutely different. Cutting off the initial downward impulse in EUR/USD, the euro has already grown by 2 points from 1.22 to 1.24. At the opening of the Asian session the demand for the euro enabled the pair to hit a high at 1.2443. The impressive US statistics inflamed risk demand. Despite the employment growth from 8.2% to 8.3% in July, the number of jobs increased by 163K last month. Remember that the average market forecast was 100K, and the maximal estimated level more…

Angry Draghi

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Are there many retailers remaining in the ranks after yesterday’s speech of Draghi? Probably, only those, who have a year or so of experience in trading payrolls. This is the common case there: a 100bp thorn in one direction and then a sharp reversal down by 200bp. Yesterday the markets did a greater job. The euro/dollar was purchased after sell-offs on the Fed’s meeting minutes, so the pair managed to grow from 1.2220 to 1.23. Some traders staked on the probability of the rate cut by a fourth of a point, so the message that the rate was kept unchanged was more…

Don’t have great expectations of today’s FOMC

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week’s rally was supported by the markets partly on expectations of further actions from two largest CBs – the ECB and Fed. However, Friday’s data on the GDP level and other relatively neutral statistics made the markets temper their expectations. In the anticipation of the Fed’s meeting minutes the average market forecast is inclined towards the status-quo preservation. Almost 90% of economists and market analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, don’t expect the launch of QE3 today. It is believed that tonight the Fed will highlight the ways to ease the policy, changing some phrases in the commentaries, but will take real more…