Don’t wait for Draghi to be mild

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

We have a new record of S&P 500 and a new tide of pressure on the single currency. The pair is obviously prevented from going above 1.3800. It was being pushed away from this level since the very beginning of the EU session and after the release of the Final GDP data the euro selling became even more methodical. The final rates proved to be worse than the initial estimates, showing the growth of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of the previous year and the annual rate of 0.4% against the initial 0.3%. France and Germany published their final estimates already more…

Uneven demand for risk

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The S&P 500 BMI closed Tuesday at the record-high level. This impressive performance was a result of the easing geopolitical tension – Russia and the USA seem to have started a dialogue, which promises a dialogue between Russia and the EU in the near future, and then between the former and Ukraine. At the same time we are getting good news from the US corporations. As expected, business activity is getting back to normal after the cold winter months. In the meantime, the EU statistics were not bad either. The data on the German labour market reflected another decrease in the more…

Analysts against traders

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

More often it’s quite the opposite, but yesterday analysts gained the upper hand over traders. A couple of minutes before the release of the EU inflation statistics, the pair came under severe pressure. It tumbled down by 15 pips to 1.3745. Then it was reported about sharper inflation slowdown than expected and the euro/dollar dropped already to 1.3720. However, the impulsive reaction of traders (or were these robo traders, working on news?) to the weaker-than-expected data held just for a moment. Further the single currency got some support on the analysts’ comments that the slowdown from 0.7% y/y to 0.5% y/y more…

In focus: European CPI and US employment

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week the euro was under such a strong pressure that even on Friday EURUSD couldn’t escape falling to fresh local lows. The pair sank to 1.3700, which hasn’t been seen since late February. This can be explained by the short-term flight to dollars for portfolio rebalancing, so traditional for the end of the month/quarter. The forces which further came in effect were less powerful, but they were enough for rehabilitation of the single currency. In the afternoon the pair rose to 1.3770 and closed the week at 1.3750. Today is the last trading day of the quarter, so the dollar more…

Closing short positions in commodity currencies

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro is still under pressure. The support at 1.3750/60, which had been strong at the beginning of the week, was surrendered by the bulls yesterday. By the way, similar performance is observed in the US stock markets. They are sagging under the burden of rate-increase expectations. However, the dollar cannot start a real rally as there is no unanimity in the FOMC. Evans, for example, expects a rate increase in the second half of 2015.  It somehow contradicts the core market forecast, according to which the rates will be raised in the first half. The dollar is depreciating against the more…