Don’t have great expectations of today’s FOMC

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week’s rally was supported by the markets partly on expectations of further actions from two largest CBs – the ECB and Fed. However, Friday’s data on the GDP level and other relatively neutral statistics made the markets temper their expectations. In the anticipation of the Fed’s meeting minutes the average market forecast is inclined towards the status-quo preservation. Almost 90% of economists and market analysts, surveyed by Bloomberg, don’t expect the launch of QE3 today. It is believed that tonight the Fed will highlight the ways to ease the policy, changing some phrases in the commentaries, but will take real more…

Poor payrolls revive Fed’s idea of QE

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Since payroll figures proved to be poor, the likelihood of further QE has significantly grown.  The US non-farm employment has gone up by 69K. As has already been mentioned, the decline in economic and employment growth is quite typical of summer months. In this connection, many economists expected that May would be a weak month, forecasting the employment growth at 150K against the average half-yearly figure of 200K. However, the reality turned out to be even harder than this. The actual figures for May-June have shown employment growth just at 69K. Meanwhile, the data for April have been revised down to more…

EUR is heading for the lower depths, but who will have the courage to buy it?

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The ECB calls for politicians to develop a new investment guarantee mechanism at the EU-wide level in order to eliminate an adverse effect, which capital shifts within the region are now producing on some banks. In their turn, the politicians keep emphasizing that the ECB has to take a more active part in bailing out of the troubled countries. While chief officials are shifting responsibility on each other and dictating others what to do, the EU countries keep falling on the domino principle, and the single currency is hitting new lows against the dollar and yen. Yesterday there was an attempt more…

The wind of change

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last weekend was really eventful. Besides, all the published news contributed to the reduction of risk appetite. The euro opened the week with a huge gap down, broke the 1.30 level and stopped just at 1.2950, though Friday’s trading was closed at 1.3080. To begin with, the American employment data turned out to be utterly disappointing. The number of jobs in the non-farm sectors grew by 115K. Remember that the earlier market optimism in regard to this indicator was gradually melting away last week. At its beginning the markets forecasted the 200K growth, while by its end the jobs were expected more…

Bernanke calls on banks to increase their capital buffers – markets don’t like it

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

On Monday evening markets started to recoup the losses suffered on poor employment data from the US. And since chances of the monetary policy toughening in the US diminished the dollar began to decline. The payrolls themselves were minutely described in our yesterday’s review, so we are passing over to other news. This night in Atlanta Bernanke made a speech in which he mentioned about the necessity of bigger bank capital buffers. This statement was quite alarming for banks and has already led to heavy losses of their stocks. Yet, Bernanke was his usual self, i.e. quite gentle, as he made more…