Thirst for risk

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

American exchanges will be open today. The markets look forward to this, since today is the last day of the month, so most funds will be reshuffling their portfolios. Very often it spills over into profit-taking, it means into the move opposite to that observed all through the month. In October the stock market has generally been on the decline. Following this logic, the US stock futures are growing now at the beginning of the day. Yesterday the single currency was appreciating, even despite rather poor news from Europe. EURUSD failed to test the level of 1.30, however the growth from more…

Mysterious reaction to employment statistics

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US employment releases are always very informative, this is why commentators very often not only make discrepant forecasts, but also give discrepant interpretation of the results. This time the situation is even more interesting. The two major indexes indicated opposite trends. Actual payrolls coincided with the forecasts, showing the employment increase by 114K. It’s remarkable that together with the serious growth, the data for the previous two months were also revised. The seemingly poor August figures were revised from 96K up to 142K and in July, as it turned out, there was a dramatic growth by 181K. Anyway, this quick more…

Central and tail-risk scenarios for payrolls

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The single currency shot up yesterday, hitting the level of 1.30 already before the payrolls. Having taken the grip of such an important psychological level before this serious news, the bulls rejoice in their success.  Yet, it’s remarkable that Draghi hasn’t given any new information to the markets. Investors and traders didn’t hope for that and to make out the further cause of actions tried to be attentive to the nuances. The markets arrived at the conclusion that Draghi would prefer to get a bailout request from Spain and probably from Italy as soon as possible to bring all guns into more…

EUR in demand on strong US statistics

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Our forecast that the US statistics would go beyond expectations proved to be true. However, the following reaction was absolutely different. Cutting off the initial downward impulse in EUR/USD, the euro has already grown by 2 points from 1.22 to 1.24. At the opening of the Asian session the demand for the euro enabled the pair to hit a high at 1.2443. The impressive US statistics inflamed risk demand. Despite the employment growth from 8.2% to 8.3% in July, the number of jobs increased by 163K last month. Remember that the average market forecast was 100K, and the maximal estimated level more…

Angry Draghi

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Are there many retailers remaining in the ranks after yesterday’s speech of Draghi? Probably, only those, who have a year or so of experience in trading payrolls. This is the common case there: a 100bp thorn in one direction and then a sharp reversal down by 200bp. Yesterday the markets did a greater job. The euro/dollar was purchased after sell-offs on the Fed’s meeting minutes, so the pair managed to grow from 1.2220 to 1.23. Some traders staked on the probability of the rate cut by a fourth of a point, so the message that the rate was kept unchanged was more…