Do the markets really believe that QE won’t be extended?

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Friday’s US payrolls were quite favourable. They showed a 146K growth against everybody’s expectations that the storm would spoil the statistics and wouldn’t let the indicator go above 100K. Yet, the report was not all positive – last month’s data were revised down (from 171K down to 138K). The decrease in the work force looks disturbing. This is exactly the factor, which helped the official unemployment rate drop from 7.9% to 7.7%. Yet, it will hardly arouse any strong optimism in the market. America is still suffering long-term unemployment: on average jobseekers cannot find a job for about 40 weeks (a more…

Holiday pessimism in Europe

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

It’s a funny thing – the market is teeming with moves in various directions. The EU currencies (EUR and GBP) suffered a lot yesterday. Oil is going down in price, while the stock market has grown just like other risky assets. No matter how illogical this move is, there are still some signs that the markets are getting back to reality. So, yesterday the single currency dropped down after the ECB’s revision of the EU economic growth outlook. Mr. Draghi was rather pessimistic in his comments: on average the European economy is forecasted to shrink by 0.3% in 2013. Yet, as more…

Unsteady upturn

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The markets keep going up, albeit rather unsteadily. The common currency is systematically purchased against the dollar. This week the slope of the curve is equal to the one, which was observed in the previous three weeks. Yet, so far there hasn’t been even a single attempt to break lower, as it was one, two and three weeks ago. However, we should mention that opportunities for such a retracement will be quite many in the coming days. The major risk is posed by the ECB’s meeting with the further press-conference of Draghi, scheduled for tomorrow. Regarding the USA, the ADP employment more…

Payrolls: even more unpredictable this time

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The analysts were cautious in their forecasts about ADP’s employment statistics. The company revised not only the calculation method, but also the previous data. As a result, the figures for September have been raised, now pointing to the employment growth of 114K in the private sector. Besides, the fresh October figures now indicate an increase by 158K. Traders couldn’t but take advantage of the improvement, which seems to be especially obvious against the background of the figures for August when growth made just 82K. Yet, the good news about the labour market doesn’t end here. The unemployment claims have decreased more more…

Politics and currency speculations

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

It was all so encouraging on Wednesday… The euro-traders repulsed the bears’ attack, got down to active buying of EURUSD at 1.2945 and in a couple of hours brought the pair to 1.30. It is of interest that by opening of trades in the USA the euro had been carefully “put” back at the starting point of the mini-rally. Thus, the 1.3020 mark proved to be a strong resistance. Formally the bulls took cover under two favourable reports on spending in Germany and France. But if we take a closer look at the reports, they are not that favourable. The German more…