Bailout of Spain – is it good or bad?

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

If we look at the headlines of the leading news agencies, it is absolutely unclear whether it is good or bad that Spain doesn’t ask for a bailout. Last week the speculations on the high expectations of Spain’s appeal for a bailout contributed to growth of the single currency against the dollar and gave rise to optimism in the markets. This morning the decline from 1.2950 to 1.29 again was attributed to the inevitability of Spain’s request for a bailout. For those who are tired of this fuss we’ll try to give an alternative explanation. EUR/USD is now balanced. The absence more…

Market Mysticism

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The famous market commentator, Mark Hulbert, has written a warning article, where he pointed out that yesterday’s decline of the American exchanges could be the start of a fundamental reversal. As an example he cited the fact that the bullish market of 2000s came into existence right on September 9, 2002. And the decline of 2007 started on October 9. It is creepy to think about the strict periodicity of these events – exactly 5 years. And it’s been just 5 years since 2007. On the one hand, the American markets have enough space for a fall, as they are rather more…

Central and tail-risk scenarios for payrolls

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The single currency shot up yesterday, hitting the level of 1.30 already before the payrolls. Having taken the grip of such an important psychological level before this serious news, the bulls rejoice in their success.  Yet, it’s remarkable that Draghi hasn’t given any new information to the markets. Investors and traders didn’t hope for that and to make out the further cause of actions tried to be attentive to the nuances. The markets arrived at the conclusion that Draghi would prefer to get a bailout request from Spain and probably from Italy as soon as possible to bring all guns into more…

Markets get ready for a spurt

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last Friday and this Monday the range of the EUR/USD fluctuations exceeded 125 pips. On Tuesday the distance between the intraday high and low made 90pips, and yesterday’s fluctuations fitted into 60 pips. It will hardly be quiet today. This afternoon the ECB holds its regular meeting. This time no one expects any actions from Draghi. Just words. This Italian proved himself to be an eloquent orator, who can make decisive statements and stick to his guns despite resistance of other countries, even of Germany. Earlier Trichet didn’t show such firmness. This time we shouldn’t expect any new statements from Draghi, more…

Tug of war is over: bears win

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

A tug of war between bears and bulls has ended in victory for bears. The stock markets have declined sharply: the American exchanges have lost by more than a percent and the Asian markets have fallen by approximately two percents. The reason why the US exchanges have taken up a defensive position is quite clear: earlier that day the indices hit the highest level for the last 5 years. With such a background it was logical to expect profit taking. Here we should also consider the fact that the rally in the American market has been exemplary for too long and more…