Still cherish hopes for the politicians?

EUR/USD

The day which had promised to be quiet turned into a big rally for the stock exchanges and risk-sensitive currencies.  The rally was spurred by Obama’s assurances that the fiscal cliff issue would be settled in the near future. As a result, S&P closed six sessions in a row with significant gains, though on Wednesday and Thursday it looked as if the growth impulse petered out. As expected, the struggle for 1.29 in EURUSD was rather fierce. Eventually, at the height of the EU session the bears gave in, thus allowing the pair to grow further. The euro had almost managed more…

Friday profit taking?

EUR/USD

The trends of yesterday’s sluggish session were quite similar to those seen a day before: gradual depreciation of the dollar.  This is quite likely to develop into a new trend. The reversal ran like this: the slight gradual improvement last week with purchases on the intraday dips spilt over in triggering of stop-orders at the beginning of this week, which is confirmed by long candlesticks on short-term time frames (especially in the 15min-candles). The euro purchases despite the news made it quite clear that the bulls’ intentions were serious. On Wednesday the pair was falling from the daily open of 1.2815 more…

An opportunity to buy?

EUR/USD

Now the situation in the markets looks more reassuring than at the end of the previous week. There is a growing feeling that the drop by over 5% since the day of Obama’s reelection was a too pessimistic reaction of the market players to the possible fiscal cliff. Sure, the issue is serious and risks are real (we do remember that last-moment deal in the style of the best American action films in August 2011). However, at the current levels the stocks look rather attractive for buying. The investor interest is growing with the approach of Thanksgiving Day, when the markets more…

The bears take profits before a new attack

EUR/USD

The traders are taking profits on the euro’s decline. It is clearly seen in EURUSD and EURJPY. And these are the main pairs in which the flight from the weak euro into “liquidity” was especially strong. Yesterday they were jerking up after the fruitless attempt to break through the local lows. That was exactly profit-taking, not an attempt to reverse since there was no good news from Europe. Quite the contrary, the German ZEW came out much worse than expected. The economic sentiment indicator dropped down to -15.7, thus bringing the modest growth of October to naught and the current situation more…

The wrong time, the wrong way

EUR/USD

In the second half of the last week the markets suffered a serious correction. Forex first stood aside, but on Friday also joined the general trend. The single currency dropped below 1.27 against the dollar at the end of the week, thus hitting a nine-week low. Then, at the beginning of September, the pair passed this level without a stop. Some believe that this time the pair’s return will be equally swift. Some consolidation is possible at 1.26. The 200-day MA, which had served as a strong support in September and October, broke under the pressure of the bears. Partly it more…