In focus: European CPI and US employment

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Last week the euro was under such a strong pressure that even on Friday EURUSD couldn’t escape falling to fresh local lows. The pair sank to 1.3700, which hasn’t been seen since late February. This can be explained by the short-term flight to dollars for portfolio rebalancing, so traditional for the end of the month/quarter. The forces which further came in effect were less powerful, but they were enough for rehabilitation of the single currency. In the afternoon the pair rose to 1.3770 and closed the week at 1.3750. Today is the last trading day of the quarter, so the dollar more…

Closing short positions in commodity currencies

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The euro is still under pressure. The support at 1.3750/60, which had been strong at the beginning of the week, was surrendered by the bulls yesterday. By the way, similar performance is observed in the US stock markets. They are sagging under the burden of rate-increase expectations. However, the dollar cannot start a real rally as there is no unanimity in the FOMC. Evans, for example, expects a rate increase in the second half of 2015.  It somehow contradicts the core market forecast, according to which the rates will be raised in the first half. The dollar is depreciating against the more…

ECB is ready for unconventional steps, but will hardly take them

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

ECB is ready to take measures not to let the period of extremely low inflation continue. We keep getting messages regarding this. Liikanen, mentioned yesterday, again spoke about possible introduction of negative interest rates to punish the banks, which park money at ECB and don’t issue loans to business and households. Draghi also didn’t specify anything yesterday, promising to ‘do whatever it takes to ensure price stability’. It’s important that Draghi and even Germany’s Weidmann mentioned quantity easing and negative interest rates among the considered measures. The market has already heard something like that before and it’s been long observed that more…

USD holds the line pretty well, for now

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The US dollar managed to preserve its positions on Monday. For EURUSD absence of motion can signal that bulls are moving up fresh reserves. The pair needs a break as technically it now looks overbought or quite so, depending on the technical indicator considered. In the meantime, the American currency, taking advantage of the opportunity, has been gathering momentum at other ‘fronts’. Stock traders decided to take their profits. The optimism, aroused by the employment statistics, didn’t last for long. To stir some considerable selling in the euro and stock exchanges we need a serious reason, but as we go forward more…

Stocks exhaled and USD grew up a little

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Putin toned down his rhetoric concerning the Ukraine and withdrew the troops back to the base, ending the training exercise. The markets breathed a sigh of relief. In the beginning this news provoked growth of EURUSD on the recovery of demand for risky assets. But since the pair wasn’t sold heavily on escalation of the conflict, it wasn’t purchased much after it had eased. The pair managed to rise to 1.3780 from the daily low of 1.3720. Besides, the US S&P 500 hit a new historic high and the Russian stock exchanges recouped half of Monday’s losses. Why not all? Because more…