Do the markets really believe that QE won’t be extended?

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Friday’s US payrolls were quite favourable. They showed a 146K growth against everybody’s expectations that the storm would spoil the statistics and wouldn’t let the indicator go above 100K. Yet, the report was not all positive – last month’s data were revised down (from 171K down to 138K). The decrease in the work force looks disturbing. This is exactly the factor, which helped the official unemployment rate drop from 7.9% to 7.7%. Yet, it will hardly arouse any strong optimism in the market. America is still suffering long-term unemployment: on average jobseekers cannot find a job for about 40 weeks (a more…

Holiday pessimism in Europe

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

It’s a funny thing – the market is teeming with moves in various directions. The EU currencies (EUR and GBP) suffered a lot yesterday. Oil is going down in price, while the stock market has grown just like other risky assets. No matter how illogical this move is, there are still some signs that the markets are getting back to reality. So, yesterday the single currency dropped down after the ECB’s revision of the EU economic growth outlook. Mr. Draghi was rather pessimistic in his comments: on average the European economy is forecasted to shrink by 0.3% in 2013. Yet, as more…

The higher we grow, the faster we fall

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The bears are trying to grab the markets in their paws. Yesterday the common currency didn’t have even a single chance to test 1.3140. The market reversed at 1.3125. Yet, it doesn’t change anything now. As has already been mentioned, the recent sharp upsurge from time to time stumbled upon the short-term selling, after which players again started buying the single currency. But this time the decline is smoother and there isn’t any sound reason on the euro’s side. Now it’s all about the dollar. The latter started appreciating in many asset classes. And largely it is a result of the more…

Unsteady upturn

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

The markets keep going up, albeit rather unsteadily. The common currency is systematically purchased against the dollar. This week the slope of the curve is equal to the one, which was observed in the previous three weeks. Yet, so far there hasn’t been even a single attempt to break lower, as it was one, two and three weeks ago. However, we should mention that opportunities for such a retracement will be quite many in the coming days. The major risk is posed by the ECB’s meeting with the further press-conference of Draghi, scheduled for tomorrow. Regarding the USA, the ADP employment more…

Republicans won’t give in without a struggle

By GG Analyst in Reviews 0 Comment

EUR/USD

Doctor House was right – everybody lies. This time those, who believed that it would be easy to agree on the fiscal cliff issue, proved to be mistaken. The good beginning of trades in stock exchanges on China’s agitation was ruined by poor news from the USA. The republicans refuse to support tax increases. They stick to the idea of further active economic stimulation, while Obama advocates spending cuts. We still believe that the middle way here consists in tax increases for the rich and preservation of some tax benefits. Yet republicans want deeper spending cuts on health care than Obama more…